571. For first time since I came to Taiwan three years ago, I sense a
feeling among high GRC authorities that
USG is looking for some way out of
China impasse at their expense. Thus far this “feeling” appears not to
have seeped down to lower official levels or to general public. This
attitude has its genesis in US election campaign and accompanying
debates, change of administration, and public utterances of well known
Americans who have become high officials and who are felt in position to
influence US policy. Uneasiness has been heightened by what is believed
to be US disposition to reach accommodation with ChiComs if only latter
would unbend, and US shift toward advocacy of neutral Laos. Issue of
sharpest focus currently however is UN
representation. GRC authorities are
deeply disturbed because they consider new administration has not come
out unreservedly in support of GRC on
this issue. They see US Government as fearful of its ability to preserve
moratorium formula and prepared to toss in towel. There are officials
here, and they are thought to include those in highest circles, who are
coming to believe USG is prepared to
plump for “two Chinas”. That there are responsible Chinese officials
prepared to believe this preposterous and mistaken idea is testimony to
decline taking place in their confidence in United States. It is also
reflective on their extreme sensitivity to mere thought of any solution
smacking of “two Chinas” which would be contrary to their fundamental
doctrine of return to mainland and liberation of compatriots.
As I interpret thinking of GRC officials,
they believe maintenance of moratorium formula remains best tactic and
they profess to believe if only USG will
place shoulder to wheel wholeheartedly and unreservedly, moratorium will
win again. Because of repugnance for “two Chinas” GRC is most reluctant to advance or discuss
alternatives suggestive in any way of “two Chinas”. Even if some such
tactic were adopted with a view to keeping ChiComs out UN, there are officials here who believe
that once door is opened other pressures would be applied by powers
intent on ChiCom admission which would force GRC to leave UN. Point to
remember here is that GRC would prefer
to be out of UN to representing only
Taiwan.
We are clearly faced with a problem of great delicacy and one on which
GRC may not find it possible to
yield at all. I believe it will be very difficult to sell GRC officials on any formula with a “two
Chinas” connotation even if for
tactical purposes only. Any approaches we make in this direction must be
handled with utmost subtlety and tact lest GRC be driven in desperation to withdrawing from UN and going it alone. In my view,
leadership here is quite capable of such course of action if pushed too
hard or driven into corner. Of course such state of affairs would shake
stability of Taiwan and could give ChiComs opportunity they have sought
for years to take Taiwan without a struggle.
I have been engaged recently in almost daily talks with Foreign Minister
and Vice Foreign Minister. Subject of UN
representation has invariably come up and I have done my best to assure
them of constancy of US position, of US opposition to “two Chinas” and
of US opposition to ChiCom admission to UN. On March 18 I spoke of Secretary's desire for GRC's idea of solution and urged that one
be provided.