817.00/2689: Telegram

The Special Military Attaché at Managua (Miller) to the Secretary of State

3. Military Intelligence. I have completed statistical survey of electoral problem results of which confirm my preliminary conclusions expressed in my telegram of September 10, 2 p.m. There were available for study and comparison the Government census, Singer Machine Company census, complete registration Christian name, last of which became available September 18th, election returns for 1916, and lists of Coalition voters alleged to have been denied inscription. It was necessary to check all data against each other to detect over statements and exaggerations of which there are many. My final conclusion is that the registration lists now padded between 40,000 and 50,000 in favor of Conservative Party and that at least 9,500 Coalition supporters have been omitted from inscription. I have furnished the American Minister with a [Page 302] memorandum setting out in full the result of my investigation and will furnish the Department copy by next mail.6

I left with him available statistics which admits a fair general view of relative strength of both parties in each political subdivision of the country. These will be extremely valuable in checking final election returns and in determining the degree of fairness with which election was conducted. My investigation discloses that Coalition Party has by no means the overwhelming majority claimed by it, providing always that Conservative strength remains intact. Of this however there is some doubt as many Conservatives are dissatisfied with candidacy of Diego Chamorro and portion of their strength may go to Doctor Urtecho. Election of election boards took place Sunday. Coalition voters did not go to polls except in more distant departments, where the order of their executive committee to refrain from voting failed to reach them in time. In three voting place [s] Coalition boards were elected. While Conservatives state that only a light vote was cast by them preliminary returns show 36,000 Conservative votes and total will probably reach 45,000. Since the Conservative vote in general election of 1916 was 51,000 which was considered a full vote, it is apparent that the Government plans to pile up a very large vote in presidential elections next month. It is certain from comparison of the vote cast last Sunday and statistics which I have compiled that the Conservatives will poll vote much larger than their actual strength.

I visited the President with the American Minister this morning and discussed contents of the Department’s telegram of September 16, 6 p.m. Two questions were discussed, first, representation for Coalition on election boards and second, the matter of allowing Coalition supporters not inscribed to vote. The Minister left a copy of paraphrase of Department’s telegram with the President which he took under advisement.

The matter of preventing duplication of voting was not discussed. Since the Department has disapproved my suggestion of marking each voter as a check against repeating there appears to be no practical method preventing duplication of voters. Any other satisfactory method is now impossible because the short time remaining before election prevents installation of any system of effective checks. However, the statistics which I have compiled will enable me satisfactorily to establish with fair degree of accuracy the extent of duplicated voters. The President has [not?] indicated his decision on the Department’s suggestions. I shall be free to leave Managua and devote remaining time before election to other parts of the country.

Miller
  1. Not printed.