740.0011 European War 1939/5007: Telegram
The Chargé in Egypt (Hare) to the Secretary of State
[Received 4:47 p.m.]
168. In a communiqué issued by British General Headquarters, Middle East, last night it was stated that the first phase of operations in the western desert might be said to be finishing. During this period a small British mobile force had been most successful in operating along the eastern Libyan frontier and heavy toll has been taken of the Italians in both material and men. Now, however, hostilities were entering a second phase with the concentration of Italian troops [Page 473] in the Monastia–Bardia [sic] area and the taking over of command by Marshal Graziani. Experience at Kassala and Moyale had shown that the Italians required a superiority of 10 to 1 before attacking but “in this coastal area they now have an even greater superiority and an attack must be expected”. Plans have been made to meet this contingency and exaggerated claims which may be expected to emanate from Bari and Berlin should be discounted.
As background of foregoing it may be said that there has been increasing evidence recently of stronger Italian opposition in western desert area and qualified observers have predicted that under the circumstances a strategic British withdrawal was probably imminent in view of heavy strain on men and the difficulty of maintaining campaign so far from bases. Further reason for such a withdrawal has been seen in pressure recently brought to bear by Italian artillery on Sollum with result that its abandonment has seemed a foregone conclusion. Once this position were lost a further retirement would be expected owing to the strategic location of the escarpment immediately west of Sollum which dominates coastal plain to the east.
Reports on last night’s American radio of mass Italian attack on Egypt are contradicted by a semi-official statement issued here this morning to the effect that there are no Italian troops at present on Egyptian soil. However an Italian attack in force which had formerly not been anticipated before the end of summer now seems in prospect and the question is whether the British will be able to sustain such an attack along their main line of defense in the Mersa Matruh area. The British still profess confidence but objective observers seriously question whether acknowledged British fighting qualities will be sufficient to make up for the great disparity between the two forces in men and equipment.
It is regarded as significant that since August 1 visits of war correspondents to the western desert have been prohibited. Incidentally the Legation learns on good authority that despite alleged British supremacy in the Mediterranean the Italians have maintained adequate communications with Libya by a successful convoy system.