The British Prime Minister (Churchill) to President Roosevelt 59
341. Former Naval Person60 to President Roosevelt. Thank you very much for your No. 299, which we have deeply considered.
Our discussions with Salazar about “Lifebelt” are proceeding on the basis that Portugal maintains non-belligerency. We know this is what Salazar wants. If successful, which is far from certain, we shall secure “Lifebelt” islands without deranging our present agreed strategy in the European and Mediterranean theatres. We do not believe that the Portuguese desire Allied Ground Forces on their mainland, and sending them might increase the risk of a German invasion. We share your view that our occupation of “Lifebelt” will not, by itself, be likely to bring on a German ground invasion of the Iberian Peninsula. Anyhow the Spaniards are more likely to resist such invasion if we have not provoked it by landing troops.
Apart from a serious ground invasion, it would hardly pay the Germans to bomb Lisbon and Oporto. By so doing, they would only blot out a valuable listening post and enable us to base air squadrons in Portugal which would, inter alia, protect our convoys from German air attack and also strengthen the bay patrol. They would also lose their vital wolfram. If, therefore, we are right in thinking the Germans will not attack by ground forces, they are also unlikely to attack by air merely out of spite.
We have got ready to send simultaneously with the dispatch of the “Lifebelt” Brigade about a hundred Ack Ack guns as part of the local defences of Lisbon and Oporto, as well as two day and one night fighter squadrons which Portal considers sufficient to deal with any bomber attack the Germans could make at this present time. We do not yet know what the Portuguese will ask for. They may be shy even of taking the forces aforesaid, lest it prejudice their nonbelligerency.
Should, per contra, the Portuguese make our sending of ground forces a condition of granting “Lifebelt”, we must discuss with you what this would mean to our whole strategy.
We can, in any case, afford to await the outcome of “Husky”, by which time we shall have learnt the extent and character of the Portuguese demands.