Foreign Relations of the United States, 1948, Western Europe, Volume III

865.00/2–748: Telegram

The Ambassador in Italy (Dunn) to the Secretary of State

top secret

Rome, February 7, 1948—1 p. m.

543. In compliance with Deptel 260, January 29,¹ my comments re Pope’s pessimism over forthcoming Italian elections are:

1. The emotions that in April will sway the Italian electorate are still in balance;

2. The present electoral situation justifies grave concern and calls for serious consideration;

3. US policy of assisting Italy has constituted our major obstacle confronting the Communists;

4. Full implementation of US policy is essential to an electoral decision by the Italian people for democratic as against totalitarian government.

Ever since the formation last May of a government without Communists, the popular strength of Communism has remained static. Some gains in the south have been offset by a slow development of anti-Communism in the north. The Sicilian elections with their slogans of “Votate Garibaldi” represent the former and the recent manifestations in the north of PSI independence (see Embtel 314, January 21) against fusion with the Communists represent the latter. From every side we have received reports that what appeared last winter to be an irresistible Communist avalanche has been checked and in many places even lost ground. Until last summer the Communists followed a policy of official respectability. It was only last fall that they turned to political strikes and open violence. That change of policy appears to have been dictated by Soviet dissatisfaction over the good progress toward stability made by the Italian Government. There now appears to be a Communist return to the policy of “respectability” presumably aided by the April elections. Agitation against the government continues but without widespread political strikes which antagonize the Italian worker.

The same Prime Minister who appealed desperately one month ago for arms for the police a few days ago was apparently so calmed by the present lull as to speculate to me in confidence on the bad effect on the Christian Democrat Party of the disintegration of the right. He appeared disturbed that an influx of votes from the right to his party would harm the center position of the Christian Democrats.

We can reasonably expect that the present lull which has momentarily calmed the nerves of the government will not continue. There will be an aggressive violent, well-organized electoral campaign by the Communists and their fellow travelers, the PSI. Should prospects of their electoral success diminish further, there may well be a resort to force. In any event throughout Italy, a vast emotional upheaval will take place in the next few months. A turning point in the elections may be a last-minute revulsion against the slogans of Communism and against another Italian adventure into totalitarianism. There was in the last two weeks of the plebiscite in June of 1946 a swing of public opinion favorable to the monarchy which almost upset the entire outcome. Even the most sanguine royalist never believed the vote would be so close. It was fear of Communism that helped the monarchists. On the other hand, with the labor movement completely dominated, unlimited funds, and the best electoral organization in Italy, the Communists may, by combining the use of fear and their trojan horse, the PSI, succeed in forestalling a last-minute popular revulsion against Italy’s commitment to Communism and a policy of alignment with the Soviet Union.

The situation is the more serious because no party except the “Blocco del Popolo” has become associated in the mind of the people with the basic reforms urgently required for the peasants, the workers and the humble white collar class so numerous in this country. Up to the present the Communists have been successful in rendering completely ineffective the dissident Socialists who should represent the main hope for the Italian worker.

We have not found any observers who are willing to predict less than 30 percent of the popular vote for the Blocco del Popolo, and the general consensus appears to waver around an estimate of 40 percent which is of course, extremely dangerous. If the Communists and PSI succeed in getting into the government again, there is every reason to believe that another tripartite government in Italy will this time lead to Communist dominance and not follow the path taken during past year. On other hand, there is no doubt but that Christian Democrats themselves and especially the Prime Minister have increased in prestige throughout the country. Even an observer such as Saragat, while dubious about his own prospects, readily predicts that the Christian Democrats will succeed in maintaining undiminished their present position as the largest mass party in Italy. While we must view with great concern the strong position of the Communists created by their victory over the anti-Nenni PSI forces, the continuing strength of the Christian Democratic Party itself is a reassuring bulwark.

There is no doubt that the increased prestige of the present government rests principally on American policy towards Italy. The vast majority of Italians recognize American political and economic help and are grateful. They hope that this assistance will increase and prefer it to any political alignment of Italy with the east. Communist propaganda in Italy is doing everything possible to discredit the US and to convince the people that the De Gasperi Government’s cooperation with the US is drawing Italy into a western bloc and inevitable involvement in a possible war with the Soviet Union. The international situation and the issue of friendship with the US will in Italy play fully as great a role in the forthcoming elections as will the internal domestic situation. Every action of the US will have a direct bearing on the outcome.

In compliance with Department’s request, I outline those measures which appear to me of importance and which should be taken if the defeat of communism is to be assured.

1. Continued support of the present government. The sine qua non of that support is the furnishing of sufficient wheat to prevent any reduction in the bread ration prior to holding of the elections (see my tels 3972, December 9² and 313 January 23);³

2. Prompt furnishing of the military equipment already listed by the government as essential to the maintenance of internal order (see mytel 261, January 20⁴ and previous);

Here follow other measures to assist groups interested in economic reforms and friendship with the West.

4. A further statement of US policy should be made. It should be so designed as to leave no doubt in the minds of the Italian People over the international issue involved in the Italian elections and the position of the US.

During the past year I have worked constantly in my speeches to clarify US policy in minds of Italians. It is extremely important that there should be a major declaration of American policy from the President or Secretary of State designed to reach every Italian. At the critical moment we must see that Italians are not deceived by Communist claim that Communism in Italy will combine the advantages of aid from the west with that of political safety and benefits from the Soviet Union.

We must demonstrate convincingly that peace and independence belong to western civilization as does subjugation and tyranny to the totalitarian system of Soviet Union. If every Italian could know the real issues at stake there would be no doubt as to the outcome, but if the US is unwilling or unable to go all out to meet Soviet policy in Italy move for move, then I would be inclined to agree with the forecast attributed to the Pope.

Dunn

1. In this telegram, not printed, the Department requested Ambassador Dunn’s views on the Pope’s pessimism regarding the coming April elections, as reported in messages from the Vatican; and suggestions regarding steps which the United States might take in the situation (865.00/2848).
2. Ante, p. 740.
3. Not printed.
4. See footnote 4, p. 757.