8. Memorandum From the Special Assistant for Intelligence (Armstrong) to the Secretary of State 1
SUBJECT
- Intelligence Note: Political Tension in El Salvador
Political tension in El Salvador is mounting steadily as the result of premature campaigning for the presidential elections scheduled for 1956. At present, President Oscar Osorio appears to have sufficient military and public support to control the situation and the opposition does not have an effective political organization. Nevertheless there is a possibility of a military coup before the expiration of Osorio’s term in September of next year.
The developing political instability is the failure of all political groups to respect the constitutional prohibition against campaigning more than four months before the date, as yet unspecified, set for elections. The administration candidate, Col. Jose Maria Lemus, has the advantage of the support of Osorio and the country’s only effective political party PRUD (Partido Revolucionario de Unificacion Democratica). Roberto E. Canessa, who enjoys considerable popularity, and Lt. Col. Rafael Carranza Amaya, with strong military following, are the principal opponents. In the final analysis, the army will probably determine Osorio’s successor. Since the army is divided, a coup by a military faction before the expiration of Osorio’s term is a strong possibility. At the present time the most likely leader to pursue such a course is Carranza.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, 716.00/8–2455. Secret.↩