No. 28.
Mr. Orth to
Mr. Fish.
Vienna, September 21, 1875. (Received October 15.)
Sir: The insurrection in Herzegovina has not yet been entirely suppressed. Since my No. 36, of August 24, 1875, on this subject, the Porte has been actively engaged in moving troops and munitions of war into the infected district, which are under the command of Hussein Pasha. Conflicts, or rather skirmishes, have been of almost daily occurrence between the Turkish forces and insurgents, without decisive advantages to either side, although it is admitted that the insurgents, being without regular organization, civil or military, without an adequate supply of the munitions of war, and, what is of greater importance, without moral support from any of the powers, or even from the neighboring principalities, are becoming gradually disintegrated—forced in small parties to surrender, or driven to mountain fastnesses, where, at most, they can only continue a predatory struggle.
[Page 58]Server Pasha, who, as stated in my former dispatch, was sent as “extraordinary delegate” on the part of the Porte, has been in the discharge of his duties for over a month, and sends favorable reports respecting his mission; among others that large numbers of the insurgents have, through his interposition, laid down their arms, and agreed to submit to Turkish rule, under the promise and in the hope of administrative reforms on the part of the Porte.
The mission of the consuls, co-operating as they are, at least in spirit, with Server Pasha, has thus far been successful in inducing some leading insurgents to accept the assurance that a reform of existing abuses cannot longer be delayed, and that such reform is more likely to come upon a complete cessation of hostilities than by continuing a contest which must prove ruinous as well as hopeless without other assistance than that which is now under their control. Should this spirit continue to manifest itself in their leaders, and gradually permeate the great body of the insurgents themselves, then Server Pasha would soon be in a position to offer an acceptable amnesty, based upon the assurance of the powers that administrative reform shall no longer be delayed.
The key to a pacific result of the present troubles is undoubtedly held by Servia, and no one, from present knowledge, can safely predict what may be the Servian attitude thirty or sixty days hence. The pub-lie sentiment of Servia, so far as public sentiment can exist or manifest itself among such a people, is undoubtedly for war, while Prince Milan and his immediate party in control of the government are as undoubtedly for peace. The Prince and his party, whatever their personal views in the matter, are merely reflecting the wishes of their powerful neighbors, Russia and Austria-Hungary, by whose favor they are kept in power.
At the meeting of the Servian “Skuptschina,” some two weeks ago, the war feeling was largely predominant, but it has been soothed, day after day, until it is a matter of some doubt whether a majority of its members are not to-day inclined to adopt the views of their Prince.
So with Montenegro, the people have all along sympathized with the insurgents, and were ready, at a moment’s notice, to manifest such sympathy openly and effectively in the ranks of the insurgents.* *
Present indications are that the insurrection will be suppressed, probably before the commencement of winter; for a poorly-clothed, poorly-fed, and poorly-housed peasantry, however patriotic, cannot long compete with the forces and resources of an organized government.
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In addition to these considerations the insurgents will be induced to submit in the hope of promised reforms becoming actual reforms, a promise which is as unlikely to be kept as those which have heretofore so often been made.
A wider diffusion of popular intelligence, increased facilities for social and commercial intercourse with the rest of mankind, may, within the next decade, bring about this result without the permission, or perchance in spite of the opposition of the supporters of Turkey.
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The Russian and Austro-Hungarian governments might be pleased to have Bosnia and Herzegovina erected into a semi-independent but tributary state, somewhat after the mold of Servia, for such a course might tend, for a time at least, to allay the periodical disturbances so prejudicial to the continued peace of Europe. But will Turkey or her Mohammedan subjects in Bosnia and Herzegovina consent to such a change in the present political status of this territory? Judging from the past history and policy of Turkey, or the present temper of this portion of [Page 59] her subjects, there can be no hesitation in giving a negative answer to this interrogatory. Even should such a course be adopted with reference to Bosnia and Herzegovina, it would, in my judgment, be but a temporary expedient, and not by any means a permanent settlement of the troubles which have so long disturbed the peace and prosperity of Southeastern Europe.
I have, &c.,