No. 555.
Mr. Christiancy to Mr. Blaine.
Lima, Peru, May 17, 1881. (Received June 17.)
Sir: Referring to my dispatch No. 296, I have the honor to inform you that though the tone of the Chilian press here and in Chili remains the same upon the subject of “occupacion indefinida” (indefinite occupation), the Chilian authorities here have, within the last few days, allowed Señor Calderon’s government to send to the northern coast some 300 soldiers, to enable him to enforce his authority there, but whether this is in aid of his right to collect duties there, or to enable him to drive the prefects of Piérola from the provinces, is not publicly known here, though I think the latter is the purpose; but, in either view, it gives some ground for a suspicion that the ground taken by the Chilian papers and officers in favor of “indefinite occupation” may have been taken only in terrorem, to drive the people into the support of the Calderon government, as I suggested in my dispatch No. 286.
There is still another ground for this suspicion. It is well known that the present Government of Chili is composed of the liberal party, which, if left to its own free choice, would have always been willing to make peace upon reasonable terms; but this liberal party holds power by a very small majority, and all the other parties and fragments of parties combine for the purpose of putting it down, each in hopes that his own party may gain something by the change.
The most prominent of these opposition parties are the extreme war party and the church party. In deference to these and the opposition [Page 911] generally, all of whom have found it for their interest to act with the extreme war party, the present secretary of war, Vergara, was put into the cabinet.
He is an able and practical man, with too much intelligence not to see the excesses of the populace, who compose the mass of the extreme war party.
An election is soon to come off for President of the republic. Santa Maria is the candidate of the liberals, and General Baquedano is likely to be the representative of the war party. The fear that the war party may succeed, and the knowledge that a successful general is always popular with the masses, may have driven even the liberal party to take ground in favor of “indefinite occupation,” and during the political campaign to show themselves as extreme in this direction as their opponents, without any real intention of carrying out the extremes of that policy if elected.
Besides all these things, the relations of Chili with the Argentine Republic are by no means cordial, and Chili may have some apprehensions that, with her long backbone exposed, the Argentines may almost any day penetrate between her spinal processes, and strike a fatal blow at her vital parts. My own opinion is, that any attempt of Chili to hold Peru as a conquered country will, at no very distant day, lead to this or a similar catastrophe, and I have some suspicion that the Chilian Government see this in the same light as I do. But it is not possible at present to ascertain precisely the ideas of the Chilian Government, if they have any very definite policy, which I doubt.
The 15th instant was the day fixed by Calderon for the meeting of congress, but about 25 were still wanting to make a quorum.
I have, &c.,
P. S.—May 23.—Since writing the above it has become still more probable that the threat of “indefinite occupation” was intended only to drive the Peruvians into the support of the provisional government, as two days ago they allowed this government to send 75 soldiers to Tarma, Oroya, &c., to control that part of the country, so as to allow the members of congress to come to Lima, and it now begins to look as if Calderon might secure a quorum (two-thirds) of the congress. If he does succeed, it will be some evidence that Peru acquiesces in that government. And if he gets the two-thirds of the members, I think I shall at once recognize the provisional government, or that of congress and the President they may elect, unless, in the mean time, I shall receive other instructions.
Your friend, &c.,