Office of the Historian

File No. 893.00/1038.

The American Minister to the Secretary of State.

[Extract.]
No. 399.]
American Legation,
Peking, January 16, 1912.

Sir: I have the honor to report that ever since my return here the situation has been so confused and so obscured with doubt and uncertainty that it has been impossible to make any satisfactory estimate of it. It seems to change every day. * * *

There are various estimates of Yuan. He is generally regarded as the ablest man that China has to-day. * * * I have no doubt he came here in good faith, intending to support the Manchu dynasty. But he has been overwhelmed by the tide of opposition to the Manchus. * * * The result is Yuan has been wavering and hesitating and listening to all kinds of advice. It is manifest that up to this moment he has not formulated any definite policy; he is simply drifting with the tide.* * * Yuan appears to have reluctantly come to the conclusion that the Manchus must go, but he has not had the nerve, or else has not deemed it wise, to tell them so. * * * It is believed, however, that it is only a question of days when abdication will be announced. * * *

The feeling in the north seems to be very strong against the south and especially against the new republic. The weakness of the republican [Page 62] movement in the south seems to be that it is promoted, supported, and controlled almost entirely by Cantonese influence. And Sun Yat Sen, whatever his character and ability may be, is not regarded here as a representative man. He was born on the coast. He was educated and has lived most of his life abroad. He knows nothing of the interior of China, or of the life, character, traditions, and habits of the Chinese people. There is much jealousy and many antagonisms between the provinces, and especially between the interior and coast provinces. It is therefore very doubtful if Sun Yat Sen can hold the situation or command the varied and conflicting influences which will become active once the Manchu influence is removed.

Therefore at this writing the crisis seems to be close at hand. No one is wise enough to predict what will happen.

I have [etc.]

W. J. Calhoun.