File No. 812.00/2710.
American Ambassador to the Secretary of State.
Mexico, January 23, 1912.
My Dear Mr. Knox: Since my dispatch of November1 30, 1911, the revolution inaugurated by Gen. Bernardo Reyes has run its course and to the infinite relief of all factions has come to a most ignominious, undignified, and grotesque end. The leader of this revolt, after invading Mexican territory without a single supporter, now languishes in a common jail, and the cause which he espoused is a subject for ridicule and jest. It must be understood, however, that the Reyes revolutionary movement failed not because of universal satisfaction with the Government of President Madero; nor need it be confidently inferred from the failure of this enterprise that another under a more daring, popular and able leader might not succeed. The truth is that at this moment Mexico is seething with discontent—principally among the higher and educated classes, who in the final analysis must rule this country either through a gradual conversion of the present administration or by open revolution; and but for the economic exhaustion, the imperative needs for peace and the general feeling that it is better to bear present evils than to rush blindly to those of an unknown future, it would be entirely possible for a strong leader to organize a formidable rebellion of wide extent against the Government. * * *
At this present moment the area of actual and open rebellion against the Government is not inconsiderable. On Friday last the Madero administration passed a bill through Congress suspending the constitutional guaranties (martial law) in the States of Morelos, Tlaxcala, Guerrero, and parts of Puebla and Vera Cruz. This is equivalent to a confession of that which has been for some time known to the Embassy: that in this large section of the country the Government was unable to assert its authority. But the extent of the territory in a state of practical revolt against the central Government is even greater than this, for the States of Chiapas and Tabasco and a part of the State of Yucatán are the seats of organized resistance to the Federal authority and of lawlessness and brigandage upon a vast scale. * * * A vast Federal force has been concentrated in the States of Morelos and Guerrero, but the existence of this force has only served to reveal its utter impotency, as, notwithstanding their presence, bodies of brigands under the [Page 714] nominal leadership of Zapata are seizing towns and villages, attacking haciendas, and committing acts of vandalism and barbarity. In some other States, like Sinaloa, Michoacán, Sonora, Guanajuato and San Luis Potosí, where the local governments have largely passed into the hands of ignorant and untrained peons of the Indian race, although the power of the Central Government is not challenged and there is no state of armed revolution, yet the decrees of the Government and its orders are ineffectual and it is unable in many cases to discharge its international and domestic obligations. I am at this present moment having to deal with numerous questions of this character and my attention is being constantly called not only to the reviving tendency to illegally confiscate American property or to deprive Americans of possession through legal methods which would be a disgrace to the civilization of the Middle Ages, but I am besieged with complaints from Americans who have been arrested on frivolous charges and confined in insanitary and loathsome jails. For the larger part of these cases I have endeavored to secure redress on my own initiative without reference to Washington, and not infrequently I have been, obliged to use methods and an urgency not at all agreeable to me and perhaps not acceptable to the officials with whom I had to deal. * * *
The two things which are most affecting public opinion at this time—and especially foreign, financial and commercial public opinion—and increasing the distrust felt toward the Madero administration are:
- First. The failure to enforce the law and the spread of lawlessness and license. * * *
- Second. The dangerous tendencies toward impracticable and absurd economic measures sanctioned by the Government. * * *
Coupled with these two grave causes of discontent are the dangers resulting from the constant excitation of the public mind by the virulent and irresponsible press, which daily agitates the popular passions with exaggerated stories of political and financial intrigues, with venomous attacks on the President and his Cabinet, and, I regret to say, the United States in its relations with Mexico and other Latin-American Republics.
As the situation here develops, I am inclined to attribute the unsatisfactory conditions which exist throughout the country very largely to certain weaknesses in the character of the President, which undoubtedly affect his immediate associates and from them dilute through the entire Republic. I believe the President to be an absolutely honest man, sincere in his convictions, and devoted to his country. But he unfortunately lacks stability of character, capacity for continuous and unremitting labor, and undeviating fixed policy. He is unfortunately prone to accept the advice and seek the counsel of some relatives and some associates who have no experience in public affairs, and is also most unfortunately disposed to play, not intentionally, the demagogue, and for reasons relating to his personal popularity to deal leniently with the enemies of public order. He is, I believe, a sincere friend of our country at this time, but his environment, ideas and associations may eventually place him in a position of antagonism. At the present moment he seems to desire to deal justly, and even generously, in all matters which are brought [Page 715] to his direct attention by the Embassy, but as time goes on it may be doubted whether this attitude will be preserved.
I am [etc.]
- Should be December; see For. Rel. 1911, p. 525.↩