File No. 763.72119/252
The Ambassador in Austria-Hungary (Penfield) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 26.]
Sir: Since the appearance of the telegraphic reports of the President’s intention to endeavor shortly to bring about a conference at Washington of delegates of the several belligerent powers, where the minimum demands of each as a ground for peace would be announced, the press throughout Austria-Hungary has contained daily comments on the subject, extracts from which were contained in my telegram No. 15391 of the 20th instant. While welcoming the idea of peace from whatever source, the comments have been cast in guarded form, which was to be expected since the Government, however urgent the necessity for a cessation of hostilities might be, would naturally not desire to appear in a too receptive mood for fear of prejudicing their chances of obtaining the maximum terms which might be proposed. Moreover, a reported passage from a speech by the President to the effect that every people had the inherent right to self-government gave umbrage to the ruling caste here in this nation made up of a congeries of peoples who for generations have been striving for the free expression of their national ambitions.
Even should the Central powers eventually emerge victorious from the war, Austria-Hungary will have to meet a heavy debt in repayment for the assistance received from Germany on all her battle fronts. The dream of many soldiers and statesmen at the present time is the crushing of Roumania; a separate peace with Russia, [Page 115] some going even to the extent of suggesting its purchase, if necessary, by the abandonment of Turkey to her fate with the consequent Russian occupation of Constantinople; and, while Austria-Hungary holds Italy, to concentrate the German forces on the west front in the hope of crushing not so much France as England, the archenemy. The British, having now so many men under arms who are receiving the training of actual service, become for the first time a serious menace to German military predominance on the Continent; and if a general peace is now brought about, that menace will be ever present, for it is not anticipated that Great Britain will ever return to her ante bellum policy of being content with a small volunteer army.
I have reason to believe that on several occasions Russia has been sounded relative to possible terms for a separate peace. It is not conceivable, however, that the abandonment of the Turks and the consequent dissipation of the German “Berlin to Bagdad” dream should be seriously considered by responsible persons either here or in Berlin unless they should find themselves threatened with total defeat, an eventuality which would not appear imminent.
I have [etc.]