Papers Relating to the Foreign Relations of the United States, 1917, Supplement 2, The World War, Volume I

File No. 763.72/7490

The Chargé in Switzerland ( Wilson) to the Secretary of State

No. 1528

Berne, October 4, 1917.
[Received October 30.]

Sir: With reference to my telegram No. 1795 of October 4 [3],¹ concerning the report of a conversation with Professor Jaffe, I have the honor to transmit herewith copy in full of the memorandum presented by the informant. While I consider that the memorandum contains information of the greatest value and of the very deepest interest, I do not feel, as I pointed out in the telegram, that absolute confidence can be placed in the sincerity of what Professor Jaffe says. Professor Foerster, with whom the interview took place, has been altogether too eager to report his conversation with Kaiser Karl of Austria-Hungary for one to believe that he has not some ulterior motive in making these facts public. Also Professor Jaffe may have had some intimation or suspicion that the person with whom he was speaking would subsequently report his views in Allied quarters, and to have therefore made his statements in such a way as to throw into a favorable light Germany’s striving for a democratization of its institutions.

I was requested not to publish Professor Jaffe’s name in this connection.

I have [etc.]

Hugh R. Wilson

[Enclosure]

Memorandum of Political Information

Berne, September 26, 1917.

[Section I: Paragraph A]

central powers at breaking strain

On September 17 it was known that Professor Jaffe had arrived in Geneva from Berlin, and our informant was able to meet him by receiving an invitation to dinner at the house of a professor in Geneva, where Jaffe was to meet Professor Foerster, of Munich University. Professor Jaffe is the great German financial authority and political economist, also a collaborator of Helfferich, editor of a German Foreign Office organ, and the Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft. Professor Foerster is the adviser of Emperor Charles with whom he has recently had several conversations.

Professor Jaffe, besides being one of Helfferich’s right-hand men, is his colleague, and it so happens that Helfferich in former days was a friend of British bankers in Constantinople, having been in close business relation when Helfferich was director of the Deutsche Bank, and the Anatolian and Baghdad Railways.

It would appear that the views given are reliable and obtained from high Government quarters in Germany, and as conversational questionnaires had been carefully prepared it was often possible to draw the conversation into the channels desired.

This report will deal with the German views, as expressed by Jaffe, and another will follow on the Austrian views, received from Foerster.

1. german peace terms: alsace-lorraine

In two or three weeks a Württemburg Catholic prince will be asked to govern Alsace-Lorraine: This is in face of the efforts of the Junkers to split it up between Prussia and Bavaria.

The peace party in the Reichstag forced Michaelis to create this new Bundesstaat, which will have the same privileges as Saxony, Bavaria, etc. Nevertheless, there are fears (well founded!) in high circles that France will not be satisfied, and, unless these provinces are given back to her, a prompt peace is impossible. The Germans admit that there is more sentimentality attached to Alsace-Lorraine in France than there is in Germany, and if those provinces are not returned, the war will be considered by the French as lost. On the other hand, if they are restored, the German people will deem it a complete defeat, despite their victories and their enormous sacrifices.

What weighs more than sentiment on the Prussian mind, however, is that these provinces contain the richest iron deposits in the German Empire; without them German industrial supremacy must wane.

In short, Alsace cannot be given up, but it is highly probable that a bargain might be effected over Metz, and a section of Lorraine bartered against compensation in Central Africa (see par. 4).

2. new polish state and german polish provinces—lithuania and courland a republic

Since the Russian revolution great changes have taken place in Polish thought: Germany feels nervous. Whereas in the early days of her occupation the Poles were friendly to her, their allegiance has now passed over to democratic free Russia. German domination is no more wanted: Poland will eventually, it is expected, become an independent state, but the German Polish provinces must remain under the rule of Prussia.

Especially would it be impossible to give up Danzig, which town, it is claimed, has only Prussian inhabitants. The provinces themselves are almost entirely populated by Germans; they would not wish to be incorporated in the new Polish state.

(Note. Lithuania and Courland could be made into a republic with the port of Riga or Libau to be jointly used by them and Poland, if wanted.)

3. belgium and north france: reparation and restoration

Jaffe was in Belgium reorganizing finance for many months. Even two years ago it was quite decided that the occupation was only “on appro” and that complete independence would ultimately be granted.

The north of France will be evacuated.

It is hoped, however, that Belgium will not be allowed to have an army, and that the forts facing Germany will be dismantled.

As regards reparation and restoration, it is considered that Great Britain has done almost as much damage in Flanders as Germany has been accused of in Belgium. The suggestion is therefore put forth that the total cost of restoration (estimated by Jaffe to be 150 millions) should be shared by the two powers equally (!).

4. german colonies and central africa: an exchange

Knowing that the Boers will not give up Southwest Africa, it will have to be abandoned against compensation further north.

In the Pacific group a similar position will doubtless arise through the Australians, perhaps also the Japanese, being against Germany’s getting back her possessions in those seas. As the Teuton new creed is to centralize colonies rather than own scattered possessions the Pacific islands will also be given up against land in Africa.

There are two schools of thought in German African colonial circles: The one advocates a central block from ocean to ocean, covering German East Africa, the Congo (a portion of it), the Cameroons and possibly Angola.

The second school insists that it will be better to have all possessions bordering on one ocean, such as the Pacific, and abandon the east coast entirely to the British.

These theorists expect to get Nigeria, Togoland, a portion of the Congo (excluding the Katanga basin) and perhaps Angola, from the Portuguese. German East Africa would become British.

The first school admits that Great Britain should be granted (!) a strip of territory from Northern Rhodesia to the Sudan, so as to permit of the Cape-to-Cairo enterprise being accomplished.

5. new federal austria: the sacrifice to italy—the future of hungary, bulgaria, turkey, roumania, serbia

Austria and Hungary want peace badly and are prepared to give up the Trentino and Trieste to Italy if the latter is made a free port.

(N. B. The Austrian hopes and fears are dealt with in sec. 2 of this report.)

Bulgaria and Turkey are lightly put aside. The former will get those portions of the Balkans which ethnologically belong to her and which, under normal circumstances, the Entente should have been prepared to give her.

Turkey is to attempt to recapture Mesopotamia. The Central powers have promised her their help.

It is more or less immaterial to Germany whether Mesopotamia remains Turkish or not. If she does not get it back this winter, she will just have to accept its loss (!).

The same applies to the Aegean Islands, possibly to Arabia, but it is hoped that a form of autonomy will be granted to the outlying Turkish provinces.

The Baghdad Railway is no more of so much political interest in Germany (!). In pre-war days, it was looked upon by the Deutsche Bank leaders as having latent commercial potentialities; for that reason Germany backed up the enterprise, but her former ideas have been dispelled, and, as things are to-day, she would prefer to join hands with England and France in developing the country rather than doing it by herself (?).

The Berlin-Persian Gulf dream was really a “war time” propaganda measure to raise the morale of the people in the face of the British blockade (!).

Some arrangement can be come to concerning the internationalisation of the Straits.

As regards Hungary, Austria fears that her hopes of a new federal state will not be accepted by Hungary; thus it is expected when peace negotiations take place, the Entente powers will join Austria in coercing Hungary to accept the new propositions. In order to make it easier for the “federation “in the coming years, it is suggested Croatia and Dalmatia should be handed over to Serbia, together with Montenegro, to form a great Jugoslav state, and that Transylvania should be given to Roumania. Both “New Roumania” and “New Serbia” must necessarily come under the “Great Hapsburg Federation” together with the Bohemian (Czech) state, Hungary and German Austria.

That is the young Emperor’s dream.

6. freedom of german commerce: raw materials—feared entente embargo

Fair play and just economic treatment are expected as one of the terms in the coming peace treaty.

No restrictions in raw material as regards quantity or price. German shipping to receive the same treatment as that of other nations. An embargo on raw stuffs is much feared.

7. the “freedom of the seas”

Jaffe is not quite clear as to what this means, but, generally speaking, he understands that the same treatment should apply to all seas, outside territorial waters, as is meted out to a neutral country on land in peace and war. Thus, seas, beyond territorial waters, will be in war time free to the merchant shipping of all nations, including that of belligerents.

He considers that “freedom of the seas” will really be in the interests of Great Britain, for blockades would be done away with. England, says J., runs more risk of being starved by future submarines than Germany does by the most effective of blockades.

8. the hohenzollern dynasty and democratic government

It is to be hoped the Entente will not insist on refusing to treat with the Hohenzollerns, for, in such case Germany would consider it an unwarranted interference with her internal politics. It would certainly cause a considerable portion of the population to remain refractory.

If a settlement with a democratic government is insisted upon, doubtless some change might be effected, through which the Imperial Chancellor, instead of being appointed by the Kaiser, should be nominated by the Reichstag. The Emperor’s powers would be thus curtailed. Universal suffrage is coming.

Section I: Paragraph B

german finance and post bellum finance

• 1. The position in December, 1917.
• 2. Post bellum taxes.
• 3. The circulation of silver.
• 4. Post bellum exchange measures; shipping.
• [5. British versus German war finance.]

1. the position in december, 1917

J. has been studying the financial situation at the orders of his Government. He has recently made an exhaustive report based on the war ending in December, 1917.

He estimates that the total annual budget requirements of the German Empire will amount to some 500 or 600 millions in December, 1917.

This sum will be too much for Germany to meet, thus a levy on capital is contemplated.

(N. B. If there are any errors in figures, it is our memory at fault.)

2. post bellum taxes

The German people prefer a capital levy to a heavy income tax, such as there is in England.

This tax on capital will be imposed on the following lines. Fortunes are to be assessed, a fixed percentage, varying according to capital, but probably up to 20 per cent will be taken as a basis and the owner instructed to purchase war loan (unless he has it) for that amount.

This war loan, when bought, will have to be handed to the Government: it will cancel it.

It is hoped in this way, perhaps, one quarter, or a little over, of the total debt will be redeemed.

To cover the other annual requirements, new taxes will be imposed including rates on coal and other raw materials (largely through the great syndicates). An increase in income tax (which to-day is very low). Formation of monopolies such as of sugar, petroleum, alcohol, electricity, matches, grain, etc.

3. the circulation of silver: exchange—the coming loan

Since the issue of one-mark notes, the circulation of silver has almost ceased. It is believed the peasants have hoarded it.

To overcome this evil a new law will come into force on 1st January 1918, by which all two-mark pieces will be made illegal tender.

Much silver should come into the market again.

In order to retain the gold in the country, every effort is being made to raise the exchange in neutral countries. In pursuance of this endeavour, the continuance of coal supplies to Switzerland, Holland, Sweden, etc., is to be made subject to increased prices and loans to Germany.

As concerns Switzerland, an arrangement has already been concluded. Against a supply of 200,000 tons of coal monthly at a fixed price, the Swiss have to make a loan of 100 million francs monthly to Germany.

As a result of this, it was expected exchange would rise to almost normal, but it appears now calculations were wrong. Experts seem to believe the rise will only be slight. Whether the same will apply to other neutral countries is not clear.

The coming loan will not yield, it is expected, over 500 million sterling: less than the last.

No compulsory subscription is contemplated. The Government know that private people and industrials are heavily laden with German paper currency, which is not yielding any interest.

The powerful argument that by investing this money in loan they will get 5 per cent should naturally mean that these hoards will be invested in it.

4. post bellum exchange measures—the requisitioning of shipping

This very important question has been studied.

To avoid a rush of small buyers of foreign raw materials immediately after the war, which would tend to inordinately raise the exchange against Germany all over the world, the Government has decided upon the following measures:

(a) That no raw materials be bought except by special licenses;

(b) These licenses will be only granted to the great syndicates or trusts which are being formed, more or less under Government control, to monopolize many industries;

(c) It is hoped that loans will be floated in countries supplying raw materials;

(d) Every effort will be made by the Government to manufacture as much raw material at home as possible, such as nitrates, new clothing from old, wood pulp, sacks from the new jute substitute, mats and rugs from pulp, clothing materials from nettles, etc.;

(e) Lastly, a complete control over all imports is to be made by the requisitioning of shipping, on the same lines as has been done in Great Britain.

5. british versus german war finance

The professor had a considerable amount to say in favor of British methods. In his own private opinion, he maintains that the English system of taxing and paying for part of the war out of new taxation is sound, but his colleagues do not see their way to institute this method in Germany. There is a reluctance in high industrial circles to accept heavy income tax and a marked preference to a capital levy after the war. He disagreed with the British system of heavy floating debts but doubtless there are reasons for it, such as to force subscription later (?).

Section I: Paragraph C

economic position

• 1. The 1917 crops.
• 2. Scarcity of raw materials: nitrates, rubber, copper, etc.
• 3. A post bellum rubber substitute.
• 4. Possible duration of war ([not] governed by scarcity of raw material).
• 5. Purchase of raw material for post bellum purposes; future commercial treaties.
• [6. Railways and rolling stock.]

1. the crops in 1917

Up to April they looked bad, but, thanks to the remarkably favorable weather subsequent to that month, a fair corn crop resulted, and the potato has been up to average; in both cases much better than in 1916. The potato crop is especially satisfactory. At one moment last season the position was critical; this year the potato yield is 45, as against 23 in 1916.

The failure has been fodder.

Generally speaking, the country people have sufficient food. The townspeople at times, largely owing to transport difficulties, have suffered and will doubtless continue to do so. The abuses of 1916 will not be repeated.

Owing to increased stocks the ration of bread has been raised from 170 to 250 grammes daily. A somewhat extraordinary miscalculation as regards the consumption of corn in Germany was made early in the war, due to the fact that 6 million (?) tons of human foodstuffs, it seems, were, before the war, being utilized for the feeding of cattle.

It is expected that the crops together with what will be imported from Roumania, etc., will be sufficient for the people this next year.

2. the scarcity of raw materials, etc.

Owing to substitutes and great economies the apparent shortage will not affect the duration of the war, although there have been moments when the position has been exceedingly critical.

(a) Nitrates

In the early stages, nitrates almost entirely ran out; had it not been for the hurried “colossal” effort to increase extraction of nitrogen from the air, the war would have come to a sudden end.

New factories were run up; to-day Germany is producing sufficient for her special requirements, although at a cost exceeding that which she was paying for it in pre-war days.

(b) Cotton

At another moment the want of cotton was serious, but thanks to great stocks found in Antwerp and elsewhere as also wood pulp being used as a substitute in many industries, the situation was again saved.

The forests in Russian territory are now supplying the urgent needs of the nation in pulp. Recently a boom has taken place in the shares of pulp mills, largely because of the new discoveries which are being made and the use of them in industry.

(c) Jute

Jute, especially for sacks, was badly wanted for a while, but a remarkable substitute was discovered in pulp. Strong sacks, even rugs, are now being made from it.

Thus pulp has been a godsend to Germany but, in certain industries, the fibre lacks, it cannot be used. In the case of underclothing it is unsuitable. Here nettles have been found to supply the required fibre; gentlemen’s and ladies’ underlinen is now being made from it.

Unfortunately for Germany, this plant is not sufficiently abundant.

(d) Wool

The want of wool has been seriously felt. By means of a campaign of economy and the utilization of all old clothes (which are re woven) the scarcity has been to a certain extent overcome.

(e) Copper

In the case of copper, the lack of quantity has been made up by economy in its use. It is said that to-day only one-tenth of what was being used early in the war is required.

To meet demand there are some stocks still in Germany. The melting of church bells and statues, etc., is one of the supplies to-day. (Inferences can be made.)

(f) Leather

The want of leather has been badly felt; great economies had to be observed; many have to go barefooted who formerly wore shoes.

(g) Fat

The want of fat has also been, and is still, very serious, largely due to the requirements of nitro-glycerine manufacture, etc.

Considerable supplies of the natural fats have had to be utilized for explosives, and no substitute has been found for this.

Oil is coming from Turkey to help the situation.

3. a post bellum rubber substitute

A wonderful discovery has been made in the artificial manufacture of rubber. It is prepared from a foodstuff. This invention is of no use in war times, but afterwards it may be a surprise to the world.

4. possible duration of war not governed by shortages of raw materials

It must be assumed that Germany can carry on, if necessary, for a further period despite shortages, if the above statements are correct; thus the scarcity of raw material will have no decisive effect on the duration of the war, for, with economies on the one side and inventions on the other, the difficulties that were in the way have been largely overcome, but Jaffe was not altogether convincing.

5. purchases of raw material for post bellum purposes—future commercial treaties

Early in the war, large purchases, especially of cotton, were made in America and stocked by German agents, with a view to preparing for post bellum requirements.

Later on, however, partly owing to the enormous rise in prices, the goods were sold, and to-day, mainly due to difficulties in transmitting orders and the exchange question, she has taken few, if any, measures to supply herself with raw materials for after the war. She depends on the good will of the Entente in the peace negotiations (!).

Future commercial treaties will be very different from the old. There will be binding clauses specifying amounts to be imported and exported from and to the parties interested.

6. railways and rolling stock

Until January of this year there was not much visible defect in railways and rolling stocks in Germany, but at that period suddenly, possibly partly due to the freezing of the canals, a remarkable change took place. Expresses were cut down, old stock was put on the lines, a general deterioration was evident.

Since the winter, however, some improvement has taken place, but the railways and rolling stock are a shadow of what they were before the war. This question has caused a considerable amount of investigation and anxiety in Germany and it is still an urgent matter.

[Section I:] Paragraph D

1. the political situation: erzberger’s speech—the fall of bethmann hollweg

Bethmann Hollweg fell because he hedged.

On the one hand the Junkers feared that he was yielding too much to the Social Democrat movement; on the other hand, when Erzberger sprung a surprise on the Reichstag dealing with submarine statistics, etc., three-fourths of the assembly (including the Centre Party) rose against him and against the Junkers, the Pan-Germans and their creed.

Jaffe relates that on that day he went round to several Government departments in Berlin. Consternation and chaos reigned. It was fully expected that bureaucracy had seen its last day. Democracy was about to come into its own.

Erzberger’s speech came at a peculiarly psychological moment. The Reichstag knew that, behind him, was the public and the whole Centre Party in agreement with the Social Democrats and Radicals.

When he hurled at the Government and Bethmann Hollweg the errors of their statistics as regards British tonnage and proved that the available ships at Great Britain’s disposal were near double the figures that the submarine policy had been based on, panic ensued and the fate of the German Empire was looked upon at that moment as almost sealed.

Had a German Kerensky arisen, the Reichstag and the whole nation would have been behind him for good, and perhaps for all time.

2. the appointment of michaelis—the ludendorff-hindenburg ultimatum to the kaiser—the role of the crown prince

When the above crisis occurred Ludendorff and Hindenburg hurried to Berlin, followed by their ally, the Crown Prince. They immediately proceeded to make an effort to rectify matters.

The Junkers and Pan-Germans, followed by a portion of the Centre Party, threw their lot in with the Military. Thus within a few days Erzberger and his peace motion were somewhat discredited. Erzberger’s star temporarily set, but it still has to reach its zenith.

The panic subdued. Members calmed down.

Ludendorff, Hindenburg and Co., backed up by the Crown Prince, went to the Kaiser, presented him with a list of candidates for the chancellorship, threatening resignation if one of their nominees was not selected.

Besides that of Michaelis, it is said that the names of Von Billow and Tirpitz appeared. (J. was a little doubtful, especially of the former.)

The Kaiser objected to Tirpitz on the grounds that, early in the war, he endeavored to force himself into the chancellorship.

Von Billow he refused to appoint, being the best-hated man in Germany. It was a certainty that the people would object to him strongly.

Consequently, Michaelis was chosen; as a “dark horse” and having been a success in the food control department, neither the Reichstag nor the people would object to him. Thus did the nominee of the military party, the Junkers and Pan-Germans, meet with the approval of the Centre and Socialists!

3. the influence of ludendorff (and hindenburg), the junkers and crown prince over the kaiser and reichstag—the power of the people

The Kaiser is influenced, but not necessarily under the influence of Ludendorff, Hindenburg & Co.

Through the Junker party, a considerable amount of pressure can be brought on him. Recently, a section of the industrials, the “heavy” division, manufacturers of goods from “home” raw material, iron and coal, etc., has been brought round to the Pan-German idea. It too can bring pressure to bear on the Emperor.

The Junker class formerly consisted of officers in the army, judges, other civilian leaders, agrarians, etc., but owing to the war, the ranks, especially the officers, have been depleted. Regulars have been killed off; the substitutes belong largely to the people or progressives who have little in common with this war and thus with those who commenced it.

However, it is this Junker class and, with it, the Military, that certainly has, if not a direct, an indirect, influence on the Kaiser, hence on the Chancellor and the Reichstag.

The Crown Prince is an appendage to the Military leaders.

From this, it might be assumed the people are somewhat powerless; that Ludendorff and Hindenburg can rule the roost, but Professor Jaffe affirms that, since the Erzberger incident, he believes with many of the most prominent men in Berlin “anything might happen in Germany now.”

Up to that moment, he was an entire sceptic, but, after the crisis, he has become absolutely convinced the people have the power in their hands and intend to utilize it slowly but surely for the formation of a democratic government in Germany.

Scheidemann, Egbert, with other democratic leaders, have recently warned Michaelis and the Kaiser of coming events, exhorting them before it is too late to make peace by every means possible.

The Alsace-Lorraine Bundesstaat is instanced as an example of bureaucratic defeat.

These men aver that, before very long, another crisis similar to the Erzberger one will arise, perhaps followed by another and still another. Finally, through their trade-unions the workmen will insist on having their way, if necessary, utilizing strikes to have it—a revolution is in the wind.

Fearing a revolt might take place peace negotiations will then be commenced in earnest.

4. popularity of the kaiser and crown prince—the future of the hohenzollern dynasty

Although Professor Jaffe’s wife is a Richthofen (?), thus related to the Hohenzollerns, his reply to this question was, “If the Kaiser, the Crown Prince and whole Hohenzollern dynasty were put up to auction to-day, they would go cheap, if there was a bidder.”

The Crown Prince is heartily disliked by almost everybody except perhaps a few of the military party. It is sincerely trusted he will never ascend the throne.

His private life has given rise to much talk and scandal.

Nevertheless, the pious hope is expressed by many that the Kaiser will have to accept the role of a limited monarch; then perhaps the Entente and America will consent to treat peace with him, and allow him to remain as a figurehead.

[Section I:] Paragraph E

the submarine policy—american intervention

When war commenced, Tirpitz did not believe that the submarine would be anything like as powerful a weapon as it has been.

Later on, when it was found that voyages could be effected into the Atlantic, his views changed. He then exhorted the Government to accept unrestricted warfare.

Helfferich (who seems to have an influence over the Kaiser) disagreed with Tirpitz chiefly on the plea that it would bring America, and may be other neutrals, into the war.

However, in January of this year, the latter changed his opinion, probably through pressure brought to bear on the situation by the military party.

In a discussion he (Helfferich) had with Professor Jaffe the former maintained Great Britain would be starved or brought to terms by June, that ammunition supplies would be so hampered that the British Army would suffer in France and be unable to keep up a powerful offensive.

Even if America came in, he argued, it would be too late for them to take any action as before they were ready Germany would secure peace. In any case, the troops they might be able to send would be torpedoed en route.

Jaffe replied that, according to his views, he did not believe it possible England could be brought to bay before January or February, 1918.

Reluctantly the latter admitted to us that even his pessimistic expectations were wrong, although the military party still base practically all their hopes on the submarine.

They all know now the end is not yet.

The German Government hypnotized itself into believing unrestricted warfare would bring about peace before American intervention could have any effect. It further argued that Americans were very much divided. If England gave way, they concluded America would climb down and accept the inevitable. America they believe now is more determined than all the rest. Hinc illœ lacrimœ.

[Section I:] Paragraph F

some mistakes of the entente in dealing with germany—how to bring germany to terms

1. lloyd george—balfour: a comparison

The German people fear the speeches of Lloyd George. Every word is published, every phrase pondered over deeply. His last few orations have been looked upon as meaning “War to the end.” Thus, the people are discouraged, and adds Jaffe, “In consequence their backs are stiffened.”

Comparing Lloyd George’s hard-hitting methods with the softer ways and manners of the author of the Foundations of Belief he affirms, from the German point of view, Balfour’s methods are the best.

(N. B. We rather gathered from him that the Germans are afraid of being hard hit.)

2. germany must be led, not coerced

The professor maintains that, if British politicians in their speeches were to “suggest” rather than to “threaten,” the humble (!) German people would be led into the right path quickly. By “threatening” the desired goal will not be attained.

He draws attention to the fact that the British press is not taken so seriously by his people, neither so much dwelt upon or quoted, as do the words which fall from the lips of great men like Lloyd George. The latter are read, reread, digested and finally assimilated into the public brain. The reply of Wilson to the Pope has had a remarkable effect for good.

This seems in contradistinction with other portions [sic] since President Wilson took up the line that it was impossible to treat with the Hohenzollern.

He suggests to British politicians that certain phases of current events should be dealt with in speeches of prominent men: that the submarine atrocities, the Belgium deportations and cruelties, the Armenian and other massacres, should be referred to and anathematized as the acts of a barbarian Government. Thus alone will the German people be educated up to believe in the errors of and the horrors committed by their irresponsible rulers.

Slowly the truth will filter through the thick skull of the Teuton and make him realize that the world has good cause to rise up in arms against him.

He will then insist on a democratic movement to replace the rotten rulers of Germany.

3. a suggested policy to bring germany to terms

If, very cautiously, it is allowed to penetrate into Germany (not in the form of a threat) that, for example, a ten-year embargo on German shipping and ports might be decided upon by the Allies (if the Allied peace terms are rejected) it is possible that the people would, after a short while, realize the dangers of such a situation. It would spell ruin and the end of Germany.

Because of the fear of it, the war might be shortened considerably.

4. the future policy of germany not petrograd, not odessa, but peace

[Section I:] Paragraph G

sundry notes of interest gathered during the conversations

1. russian revolution and peace with the czar

It is known in Germany that, had the Russian revolution not taken place, the Czar would have agreed to a separate peace.

2. british aircraft men compared to the french

Mrs. Jaffe was told by her relative Richtonhofen [Ricfothofen?], the German airman, that the British airmen are altogether superior to the French. Whereas the former always attack, whatever the odds, the latter very of ten run away.

3. battle of the somme and german aircraft activity

It came as a shock to the Germans. The British air activity then gave the Germans the cue that they must increase their aeroplane squadrons on a very large scale. This is being done.

4. the vimy ridge battle and the attack on the messines ridge

These were great surprises to Hindenburg, even to-day officers mention the former capture as something which cannot be understood, it happened so quickly. The Messines [omission] was a case of force majeure.

5. the first british army

It is spoken of very highly throughout Germany. The quality of the new army has been an eye opener to the Military.

6. german birth rate—mortality—illegitimate children

The birth rate in Germany has gone down on an enormous scale. For the first time deaths are in excess of births.

Child mortality has not increased but the birth of illegitimate children has. In Munich one in every three children is illegitimate. The Government is, if anything, encouraging this, by paying the woman a fixed sum to support the child. It is no more any stigma on the woman.

Married soldiers are given preference as regards furlough over the unmarried.

7. germany and mesopotamia

As stated above, Germany has lost her interest in Mesopotamia. It is believed now that the Baghdad project will not prove for some decades a commercial success. It is hoped, however, that after the war, England and France will join hands with her to further the scheme.

Turkey insisted on an attempt being made to recapture Mesopotamia. The Centrals had to consent. Thus, the effort will be made. If it is successful, well; if it does not, Turkey will have to accept the probable amputation of that province. Germany had to save Turkey from Russia. She succeeded, and Turkey should be grateful.

8. erzberger (von bülow) peace intrigues in switzerland

Doubtless Erzberger, in conjunction with the Catholics, with Archbishop Hartmann of Cologne, and the Bishop of Coire, have been endeavouring to foment a peace movement in Europe through Switzerland. They succeeded in getting the Pope to send in his famous note (with the help of Austria).

As regards the part that Von Bülow is playing, whatever it may be, it probably will prove to be something “dirty,” says J.

9. verdun

Falkenhayn insisted on the Verdun attack and persisted in the endeavour to conquer it. It was fully expected the fortress would fall and through it Paris, and the end of the war is reached.

The fault for the defeat of the Marne is put on Moltke’s shoulders He lost all connection with his armies.

The Crown Prince is looked upon as too much of a fool—is not considered really responsible for the Verdun fiasco.

10. the “berliner tageblatt” and prince lichnowskys letters

In the words of Jaffe, “Prince Lichnowsky is known to be throughout Germany too complete a dullard for anyone to take any notice of what he says or writes.”

11. the policy in kühlmann

Zimmermann having made a fool of himself, it was desirable to put a man of experience and brains in charge of that office. The choice fell upon Kühlmann who “knows his England.”

12. prisoners in munition factories

The professor denies that any are in factories. They are mostly working on the land.

13. the luxburg telegrams¹

This exposure caused a huge sensation in Germany. A few more such actions on the part of German Government officials will effectually seal the fate of the present method of government. It is to be hoped “that America will publish some more similar records,” says J.

14. demobilization of the army

This will be gradual. First the elderly men, married men, and those belonging to certain trades, will be discharged; slowly, the rest will follow.

15. women workers

In many industries they have given much more satisfaction than the men, consequently, after the war, it is intended, especially in machine shops, to retain their services. This movement will not be interfered with by the trade-unions, which have not got the power that they have in England.

16. the production of raw materials after the war and the newly erected factories

For the purpose of keeping money within the Empire and to avoid exchange troubles, every possible effort is to be made to manufacture as much raw material in the country as possible. The many discoveries that have been made during the war, especially in the field of wood pulp, will be financially encouraged by the Government. Thus, it is hoped, the newly erected war factories will be continued to be used for post bellum peace activities.

17. the man power of germany

The professor hesitatingly replied that, thanks to the more economic methods for saving lives now in vogue in the German Army, the man power of the country is sufficient to meet the requirements, even should the war last out longer than is anticipated to-day. The quality has necessarily depreciated.

18. future policy of germany

We endeavoured to draw J. on as to the future intentions of the Military. He seemed to be very confident that Germany, unless absolutely forced to, will not endeavour to secure many more brilliant victories in the field at a cost of valuable lives. Her aims are no more towards Petrograd, nor towards Odessa; peace is her goal to-day. If the Turks take Mesopotamia and Roumania capitulates, all is well. Italy and France might collapse, like Russia, before America comes in and before the western offensive forces them back to the Rhine, if it ever can.

[Section I:] Paragraph F [H]

conclusion

The above lines, we hope, clearly, briefly, and as correctly as memorizing a long conversation admits, give Professor Jaffe’s statements to us.

He appeared to be sincere in most if not all he said, but, behind his words, stood out a taint of pessimism which he vainly struggled to suppress.

Certain impressions forced themselves upon us during our interviews, and we left him with the feeling: “Something has gone wrong in Germany.”

When speaking of “raw materials,” he hesitated at times. On the subject of man power, quantity and quality, he appeared reticent, if not nervous. When dealing with the submarine, he openly admitted the “hope deferred” if not the “melancholy truth.”

But the greatest, the haunting fear of bureaucracy is the people. In Jaffe’s own words (he has a perfect command of English): “What only three months past seemed impossible, has taken place. The elements of revolution have appeared; anything might happen. The power is with the people.”

Some more Luxburg revelations; another half year of rationing; a little further disappointment in the submarine; a few extra trials; more heavy casualty lists; and then breaking strain will be reached.

This time the Central Empires are cracking. Jaffe breathes that; Foerster says it; both have come from the entourage of Kaisers.

The Governments are discredited, the Emperors pitied, the German Crown Prince ridiculed and detested. Indeed the Hohenzollern dynasty “is going cheap without a bidder.” The Kaiser, we are told, spends much of his time at prayer meetings, rather than at “mailed-fist” gatherings, although, outwardly, bombastic still.

“The melting down of bronze statues, effigies of former Emperors, is, it may be, a shadow cast before,” our informant remarked with a smile.

Germany, it is evident has “got into a scrape and wants to get out of it.” That fact cloys on the “organized” palates of Professors Foerster and Jaffe, learned men of power and note in the enemy camp.

1. Not printed.
1. Printed in Supplement 1, pp. 322–323.