893.00/4368: Telegram
The Minister in China (Schurman) to the Secretary of State
[Received May 20—3:02 p.m.]
225. Your 98, April 26, 3 p.m. Philoon returned 6th, Magruder42 18th from Canton, have also recent consular reports. Following is situation:
After failure enter Hunan from Kweilin, Sun Yat-sen at Shiu-chow with about 30,000 poorly disciplined, poorly equipped troops again threatening invasion of North via Kiangsi. Told Philoon he dismissed Chen Chiung-ming because Chen did not favor or assist Northern expedition. Chen near Waichow with about 15,000 troops disaffected but not menacing Sun’s activities. Kwangsi in the hands of bandits. Governor of Kwangsi now in Canton. Financial situation serious, local notes quoted at 65, municipal administration well run but outlawry and banditry rife in province even to outskirts Canton.
Sun admitted to Philoon withdrawal of support Yunnan and Kweichow. Actually Southern Government exerts no control outside Kwangtung and Kwangtung divided between adherents Chen and Sun holding bitter partisan feeling which, however, not believed likely to become armed conflict.
… [Sun] has alienated sympathy of thoughtful Chinese and foreigners but still strong with labor unions and radicals. … Sun is a born leader, agitator, firebrand, and is likely to retain following especially as strikes are increasing sympathy. Chen is lawyer, soldier, administrator. Ultimate goal of both is unified democratic China with provincial autonomy. Sun would march straight to Peking with his small and miserable army having sublime confidence in his own ability to establish and rule unified and perfect republic; Chen sees reasonable preparations are necessary. His own program is the political and economical development of Kwangtung and the spread by force of example and proven accomplishment of good democratic provincial governments.
Recent events in North and South have strengthened Chen. Wu Pei-fu and his friends are looking forward to the move of an alliance with Chen but in spite of factional intrigues of the worst [Page 707] type in the South the [garbled group] of the Southern cause has prevented armed conflict among Southern adherents and may hereafter prevent substantial alliances of individual adherents with northern leaders. In other words Sun, though weakened by blunders military and financial, may still dictate South’s terms of union with North and it is very significant that Huston telegraphs as follows, May 16, 3 p.m.: “Commissioner of Foreign Affairs admits Northern expedition hopeless. Wants to know what terms Wu Pei-fu is prepared to offer. If favorable, thinks he can persuade Sun to accept.”
With the victorious Wu advocating constitutional government and unification of China and Sun ready to negotiate, conditions for happy issue of Chinese troubles are more favorable than hitherto. Question is whether China can grasp the opportunity. National treasury empty. … No outstanding figure in North and, as regards South, Sun would be impossible as responsible statesman and Chen would scarcely be thought of for President or Premier.
- Maj. John Magruder, assistant military attaché in China.↩