793.94/5606
The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 5.]
Sir: The Embassy has vaguely suspected for some weeks past that the Japanese Army or Government has something new on the tapis concerning North China, Mongolia and possibly Manchuria, but in the absence of any definite facts or even of logical surmises it has hesitated to convey its suspicions to the Department.
The reasons for the suspicions are themselves extremely nebulous, but for the Department’s information are listed as follows:
- 1.
- The Japanese Army is finding the pacification of Manchuria a much more difficult and expensive task than was expected. The Embassy has learned from observers that very little of Manchuria is now under the effective control of the Japanese or “Manchukuo” officials, the Chinese volunteers and rebels having acquired control of practically all of the country except the railway zones and towns on or near the railways. The Japanese are unable even to guard the railways adequately, and the only line able to operate regularly is the original South Manchuria Railway, from Changchun to Dairen and Antung. Parts of the Chinese Eastern Railway and the Mukden-Kirin Railway are not operating at all, while trains run on other lines only in the daytime. A Japanese Army officer stated that, in order to control the rebels effectively, the Army would have to double its forces in Manchuria, at very heavy expense. Under these circumstances the Japanese would doubtless welcome some realignment of influences which would check the anti-Japanese movement in Manchuria and render unnecessary any large-scale military operations.
- 2.
- The Japanese at one time were undoubtedly preparing for a drive into Jehol and possibly into Hopei, having concentrated troops at Chinchow and having found the excuse in the person of the captured Ishimoto. The Army officials in Tokyo announced publicly that Marshal Chang Hsueh-liang was going to travel abroad very soon. But without giving any reasons the whole scheme was abandoned, [Page 313] for the present at least. No further move is being made against Jehol, Ishimoto has been forgotten, and Marshal Chang remains in Peiping. It seems probable that the Japanese have decided to accomplish their purposes in North China by some means other than military operations.
- 3.
- Mr. Bao Kuen-chen,1 the diplomatic representative of “Manchukuo” in Tokyo, recently remarked to a foreign newspaper representative that “he would not be surprised to see Pu Yi become Emperor of North China, including Manchuria”. The Chinese in Changchun, according to another correspondent, are openly discussing the amalgamation of “Manchukuo” with North China.
- 4.
- The Japanese Foreign Office is reported to have instructed Mr. Yosuke Matsuoka, one of the delegates to the meeting of the League Assembly which is to discuss the Lytton Report, to suggest to the Assembly that the League take no action at present but instead to observe developments in Manchuria for a year or two. As it seems improbable, from present indications, that there will be any considerable improvement in conditions in Manchuria in that time, it is possible that the Japanese are trying to gain time in order to engineer some realignment of influences in North China, Mongolia and Manchuria.
The Embassy has been unable until recently to obtain any definite facts upon which to base a surmise as to the probable outcome of the above factors. The Military Attaché of the Embassy, however, recently obtained some information, from a source believed to be well informed, which may throw some light on the question. The Military Attaché’s memorandum of the statements made by his source of information is as follows:
“With reference to the movements of Mr. Ariyoshi (the Japanese Minister to China), there are two plans on foot. The Japanese Army, working through reserve officers, wants to bring about an independent North China and to send Marshal Chang Hsueh-liang travelling abroad. A more conservative element in Japan desires to support Chiang Kai-shek so that he can put down the communists and unite China, including North China, while Marshal Chang Hsueh-liang travels abroad. Mr. Ariyoshi went to Nanking to look into the possibilities of the second plan and is now in Peiping investigating the possibilities of the first plan. Upon his return to Tokyo the Japanese Government may decide on its line of action. Of course, they may postpone action until they know definitely what the League will do.”
Respectfully yours,
- Also known as Pao Kuan-chen.↩