793.94/7473
The Ambassador in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 4.]
Sir: I have the honor to summarize comment made during a conversation between a member of the Embassy and Dr. Hu Shih, noted Chinese intellectual, Mr. Loy Chang, Chinese head of the Chinese Customs Administration, and Mr. Lin Yutang, an intellectual of rapidly increasing reputation, with regard to the “probability” that the Chinese will in the near future take active military measures against the Japanese.
Dr. Hu Shih led the conversation, saying that it was “almost a probability” that the Chinese would resort in the near future to military action against the Japanese. (When he was asked to be more exact, he stated that in his opinion the chances were more than even that there would be warfare between the two countries within six months.) He regards as significant in this connection that part of the so-called Tada statement in which it is argued that General Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang must go if Japanese Imperialism is not to fail. He also regards as significant the present visit of Marshall Feng Yu-hsiang from Shantung to Nanking and the allegedly impending visit of Marshal Li Tsung-jen from Kwangsi to Nanking for the reason that he believes that they would go to Nanking only if there were to be serious discussion of armed resistance against further Japanese aggression. Dr. Hu regards Marshal Feng as the man who could bring to a common line of action such northern generals as Han Fu-chu, Yen Hsi-shan, Fu Tso-yi. The reason for the belief of these three gentlemen that the Chinese may fight is summed up in the phrase, quoted by Mr. Lin Yutang, “when a dog is driven to the end of a blind alley he will turn and fight”.
Dr. Hu Shih evidently felt it was necessary to attempt to reconcile his present view that China ought to fight with his well-known pacifist views. He said that he has always been a pacifist, is still one, was one of the few who urged a direct settlement between Chinese and Japanese shortly after the Mukden incident, and was the only Chinese who expressed approval in print of the conclusion by the Chinese authorities of the Tangku Truce of May 31, 1933. He feels now, however, that there is no hope of compromise with the Japanese and that the ambitions of the Japanese military leave for China no alternative but to fight for self-preservation. He added that heretofore he had felt that persons such as he, who would not be called upon [Page 401] to bear arms in case of a conflict with Japan, should not urge a course which would bring suffering to many Chinese but that now the situation was so serious that he no longer held this view.
When Mr. Lin and Mr. Loy Chang showed an inclination to belittle what the Japanese military might do in case of an armed conflict, Dr. Hu Shih deplored such a view, stating that he believed that a Sino-Japanese war would result in the worst war of history as it would involve eventually other countries of the Pacific, adding that it would be one of the intentions of the Chinese to see that those countries did become involved. He also said that it should be realized that for some time the Chinese would be fighting alone against the Japanese, with the result that there would be appalling destruction of Chinese life and property. He regards as the best strategy attack against the Japanese as widespread as possible for the reason that an extended front would necessitate mobilization by Japan of all its forces and a greatly accelerated expenditure of armaments and money.
It was Mr. Lin’s opinion that if General Chiang Kai-shek were to begin hostilities he would become the hero of the Chinese people, as General Tsai Ting-k’ai did when he led the Chinese forces which fought the Japanese in 1932 at Shanghai. The others also thought that China would be unified by armed resistance against the Japanese and that the Chinese would be good fighters because of their bitter hatred of the Japanese, a hatred made the more bitter because for so long they have had no outlet for expression of it.
These views, particularly those coming from Dr. Hu Shih, are interesting to me. Hu Shih is a leader of Chinese thought and has strong influence over many educated Chinese. I have noticed among other thinking Chinese a development of a similar viewpoint since the Japanese demands of May and June of this year with respect to Chahar and Hopei Provinces, which, together with subsequent activities of the Japanese military, have apparently convinced them of the futility of expecting any permanent relaxation of expansion by the Japanese military at the expense of China. There continues to be reason to believe that General Chiang Kai-shek is preparing in western China for eventual resistance against the Japanese, and I consider it a possibility that the Chinese may feel that there will soon be only two courses open to them: (1) complete submission to Japanese ambitions or (2) war. Before the Chinese could take any action, however, they might very probably be forestalled by some new measures on the part of the Japanese.
Respectfully yours,