Office of the Historian

793.94 Conference/140: Telegram

The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State

Tokyo, October 30, 1937—7 p.m.
[Received October 30—1:50 p.m.]

505. Department’s 272, October 29, 1 p.m. I have been considering with my British and French colleagues whether there is any recommendation we could usefully make from here to assist deliberations of the Brussels Conference. Craigie and I have agreed to send an identical telegram in the following terms and I understand that French Ambassador is telegraphing in the same sense.

1.
No form of collective mediation or of good offices which might lead to mediation is likely to be acceptable to the Japanese Government because any such offer, however carefully worded, in the Japanese view contain[s] an element of pressure. Foreign pressure will be [Page 125] resisted to the last ditch. Anglo-American mediation would be even more unpalatable than mediation by larger number of powers.
2.
It is possible that mediation or offer of good offices by a single power (preferably Great Britain or the United States) might be acceptable to the Japanese Government at the appropriate moment but that moment has not yet come. It might come if Japan were to gain a signal victory in the field (more striking than the recent success at Shanghai) or if the readiness of the Nanking Government to enter upon negotiations were to become more apparent than it is today.
3.
If the door is to be left open to such mediation it seems important that Conference should adhere strictly to its mandate of attempting to promote peace by agreement and avoid any further expression of opinion on origins of conflict or responsibilities involved. The greater the appearance of impartiality the better the chances of an ultimate successful mediation. As viewed from here best solution would be that Conference should appoint a small number of interested powers to keep in close touch with developments and should the situation warrant it to offer either their collective mediation or the mediation of one of their number by agreement with the others. It would be unfortunate if any decision were to be taken which would in practice rule out mediation by a single power because this might in effect rule out mediation altogether.
4.
The possible effects of the proceedings of the Conference on the internal situation here will no doubt be borne in mind. There are constant rumors that Mr. Hirota’s position is somewhat shaken. The army and navy are said to favor replacement of Mr. Hirota by Mr. Matsuoka44 and it will be realized that any such outcome of the present political comings and goings among influential elements in Japan would probably mean the adoption at the front of even more ruthless methods of ultimate imposition of harsher terms on China. Fall of Mr. Hirota with its implications that the moderate elements are in retreat would have unfortunate results for United States and British interests.
5.
It is very noticeable that the war spirit here is growing.

Repeated to Nanking.

Grew
  1. Yosuke Matsuoka, president of the South Manchuria Railway Co.↩