851G.00/6–546: Telegram
The Vice Consul at Hanoi (O’Sullivan) to the Secretary of State
[Received June 6—10:45 a.m.]
37. There is growing conviction in Viet Nam circles that principal point involved in Paris negotiations will be future status of Cochin China and how it will be determined.
Viet Namese generally agree that without Cochin China any independence will be largely theoretical.
Viet Nam position regarding referendum appears to have undergone extensive changes. Ho Chi Minh when he signed convention of March 6th was convinced that in any “fair” referendum Cochin China would not [vote?] to attach itself to Viet Nam.
However, Dalat Conference delegation apparently returned to Hanoi with realization that Viet Nam strength in Cochin China was diminishing. This they attribute to French propaganda and absence of freedom for their own agents.
Realization of diminishing Viet Nam strength in Cochin China is probably principal reason why Ho accompanied delegation to Paris. He hopes to reach satisfactory solution on this all-important question on basis of numerous friendships which he has with Left Wing French circles.
French here give impression they would not object to referendum in Cochin China. However, they indicate they would not care to allow complete freedom for Viet Nam agents there. Their objection is that such agents would resort to terrorism to influence vote. (There seems to be certain amount of justification for French contention. Viet Nam police have been treating pro-French Viet Namese and Metis with French nationality rather severely in Tonkin.)
Outcome of any referendum would probably be largely determined by conditions under which it would be held. French feel Cochin China would vote 80% for autonomy. Viet Nam claim Cochin China would vote 80% for incorporation with Viet Nam. Both claim[s] have an unspoken promise [premise?] that claimant could establish conditions of referendum. Neutral observers here feel vote in referendum free of undue influence from either side would be close.
Sent Dept as 37, June 5, 8 p.m.; repeated Nanking, Saigon informed airmail.