893.00/5–2147: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received May 21—8:19 a.m.]
1110. Following is Changchun’s 196, May 19, 3 p.m.
“Communist forces yesterday evening were about 8 miles west and 5 miles north of Changchun. There was light skirmish at West airfield night of 17th, planes having been removed and preparations indicate Government forces anticipate they may be forced to abandon it. Population and hospital between airfield and inner western perimeter of town have been evacuated. Government forces are concentrating within inner perimeter with construction additional pillboxes and trenches and placing of artillery inside city. ReContel 195, May 19.7 Sent Nanking, repeated Mukden.
[Page 136]Present Communist drive still lacks clearly denned ultimate objective. Note, however, that drive is on larger scale than any previous movement in Manchuria. It seems probable that this time Communists have intention of carrying through farther in distance and longer in time than they did in three previous drives this year with objectives (1) supporting Communist campaigns in North China and (2) ultimately gaining control Manchuria.
Because of concentration troops Changchun it seems improbable major Communist attack will be launched on town at this juncture. Obviously, however, if Communists felt they were now in position to take Changchun they would choose to do so and thus (1) shatter whole Government defense position in central Manchuria and (2) strengthen their own position directly by capture important stocks war material. This latter alternative must be viewed as theoretical possibility.
It nevertheless appears more probable, if estimates of relative troop strength and information re deployments are reasonably approximate, that movement toward Changchun is in present stage primarily diversional to pin troops down and cover blow at weaker point. If assumption made in paragraph 2 is valid one possible logical Communist move would be to make long sweep eastwards south of Changchun to join up with Communist groups scattered between Hsian and Hailung, with aim of interposing substantial blocks to rail communications of Changchun (rail line to south is still open) and Kirin with Mukden and gradually effecting reduction of first two cities.
Two Govt divisions have reputedly arrived Manchuria from Jehol having been replaced by units from inside Wall.8 There is however also reported some increase Communist movement in Jehol regions. Clubb.”