865.00/3–1048: Telegram
The Ambassador in Italy (Dunn) to the Secretary of State
urgent
1030. Week ending March 6 saw intensification of Italian electoral campaign in further clarification of real issues involved: western democracy versus eastern totalitarianism. The campaign of posters has just begun. First samples on Popular Democratic Front side include bloody violent colonial scene (Mogadishu) attributed to “Anglo-American imperialists” alongside hand of Soviet friendship being extended to Italy across map of central Mediterranean showing Libya as Italian territory (see my 895 March 2)1 Democratic Christian’s early contributions are handbills showing number of hours Russian, Italian and American laborers must work to earn a kilogram of bread, of meat, of sugar, a man’s woolen suit, et cetera, all of course greatly to detriment of Soviet economy. Campaign speeches previous weekend of De Gasperi at Ancona, Togliatti at Naples, Saragat at Brindisi, Simonini at Bergamo, Pacciardi at Venice and Lucifero at Cosenza dealt increasingly with the conflict of views between east and west, between democracy and dictatorship, between “reactionary forces of imperialism” and “progressive democracy,” between human liberties and the supremacy of the state. From the Liberals of Lucifero to the Socialists of Saragat the campaign orators praised American aid, supported the Marshall Plan and warned the electorate of the ominous significance of the Communist coup in Czechoslovakia, while the Popular Front speakers claim that only they represent the working classes and strive for peace against “American imperialists” and “Vatican reactionaries”, i.e. the Christian Democratic Party and the De Gasperi government.
[Page 846]The fight between the Communist Party and the moderate democratic elements was, during the week, carried into the CGIL (Italian General Confederation of Labor) when the minority therein composed of Democratic Christians, Republicans and PSLI (Italian Socialist Workers Party) refused to be governed by decision of Communist-controlled majority and announced its intention of sending representatives to Trade Union Congress discussions in London on Marshall Plan. While minority decision is in substance a break in Italy’s united labor organization it may well presage end of nominal labor unity represented by CGIL (see mytel 977 March 6).2 None of the various factions represented therein, however, wish to assume responsibility before laboring classes for complete break.
The implications of the Communist victory in Czechoslovakia are not lost on the Italians and the apparent ease with which it was achieved has impressed average Italian voter with the strength of the Communists as a political party and of the USSR as a powerful and all too close neighbor. While it may have confirmed in the minds of the more thoughtful voters their views of Communists complete disregard of democratic processes, its general effect on average Italian electorate unhappily has probably been to increase the prestige of the local Communist Party and direct the politics … toward the Communist bandwagon.
Embassy has had reports of large-scale hedging in the middle and upper classes to preserve fortunes and political futures. Evidences of growing anxiety in these classes are increased flight of capital, clandestinely, abroad; preparations to emigrate abroad; and even hasty inscription in the Communist Party by professional men and well-to-do landowners. While this feeling in the middle and upper classes has not yet reached anything like a stage of panic, it might, if it continues to accelerate, result in large-scale absenteeism from the polls by a normally anti-Communist electorate or even isolated resorts to violence by extreme rightist.
Deepening anxiety and pessimism on the part of the non-Communist elements is evidenced in the increased and overt activity of the Roman Catholic Church in the Italian election. The Archbishops of Milan, Palermo and Turin have separately and in varying degrees attempted openly to influence their congregations away from the Communist front in the coming elections. Qualified observers agree that the Italian hierarchy of the Church is now firmly following Pope’s lead, given several months ago, that the Church cannot remain aloof from any sectoral struggle the outcome of which obviously affects its existence and the very seat of its power.
[Page 847]The failure of Lucifero’s plan to unite central and right wing parties into “anti-Communist bloc” for electoral purposes has pointed up the disadvantage at which the non-Communist political groups find themselves in confronting the single ticket of the Communist front. While it is generally conceded that the front will win as many or more votes than the Democratic Christians there is widespread difference of opinion on effect Popular Front plurality would have on formation new government. Competent observer Foreign Ministry opines that Popular Front electees will, at Parliament’s convocation twenty days after election, reform their traditional Socialist and Communist parliamentary groups therein and that politico called to form government will be leader of strongest single party, presumably Democratic Christians. On the other hand member of Prime Minister’s entourage is of opinion that Popular Front will maintain its identity after elections and that President of Republic may feel obliged to call upon its leaders to form new government if that list should win plurality. While any new government formed must eventually submit itself to Parliament for confidence vote, this could of course be sufficiently delayed to give Popular Front incumbents opportunity to do considerable harm to democratic structure and institutions. This official believes that present government will administer country during interim period between elections and convocation Parliament and that new government will be formed only after Parliament has elected new President of Republic. Consequently role of new President will be of first importance and his political sympathies of significance.
Sent Department 1030, repeated Paris 139, Moscow 27, London 100.3