860H.00/10–448: Telegram
The Chargé in Yugoslavia (Reams) to the Secretary of State
1327. I agree that if Tito should enter war on Soviet side he would almost certainly attempt exclude Soviet troops from Yugoslavia (Deptel 565, October 1). However, this would not remove him from dilemma horns. We would feel no more kindly toward him and Russians if victorious would certainly be strong enough remove him. Also agree Russians would prefer liquidate Yugoslav situation before embarking war. They are unlikely succeed if we give him economic support present regime. Odds favor continuation regime even in event Tito assassination. Soviet invasion to enforce change unlikely but should certainly call for immediate positive action our part. I feel strongly that importance maintaining independent defiant Yugoslavia cannot be overestimated. Believe that pull on other satellites may well become irresistible if time permits Tito fully consolidate his position.
[Page 1113]Defense must, of course, estimate advantages Yugoslav neutrality. I am inclined believe that it would be possible persuade Tito remain neutral if we so desired. Personally believe this desirable. However, Embtel 1303, September 27, based solely on possibility defense might consider desirable.