867N.01/5–1448: Telegram
The Ambassador in Egypt (Tuck) to the Secretary of State
519. In commenting on infotel May 13,1 Embassy suggests that while internal weaknesses Arab countries mentioned do exist in greater or lesser degree they will not affect to extent indicated immediate action in Palestine by Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Transjordan. Effect will be more observable in long run. Believed also that existence of internal dangers as in Iraq will in fact force Arab Governments to press positive action in Palestine with all vigor in order to ward off rising resentment and to justify Palestine policy. Egypt has suffered recently particularly from police strike, but it must be pointed out that fear of recurrence of such event has not prevented government from dispatching 10–12,000 troops to frontier with all possible equipment, from declaring martial law, from initiating censorship and taking other measures for preservation order. Military equipment is lacking for Egyptian Army but not because of “its refusal of British aid”. On the contrary, equipment is lacking through refusal of British and other Western Powers to provide earnestly-sought military equipment. Apparent determined effort now under way by Egyptian Government to obtain arms from any source available, including Czechoslovakia.
Influence internal weaknesses on military action other countries best judged by Missions countries concerned but believed here Iraq can spare more than “handful of men.” Best estimate of Arab military strength held to be that from British source to Military Attaché, transmitted to Defense Department, secret telegram 105, May 11, which estimates total Iraq strength in Transjordan at about 5,000 men, available strength of Syria at about 4,500 while Lebanon and Saudi Arabia negligible.
Jealousies among Arab countries will undoubtedly prevent making best use of military forces but participation of Egypt, generally regarded as best friend Saudi Arabia, with Brigadier Sabur with three [Page 992] senior officers as chief of staff to King Abdullah may indicate that efforts to bridge existing differences are bearing fruit. Obvious that Transjordan Army without British officers will not make as good showing as otherwise but evidence exists that some British officers have been retained and others hired to lead Arab Legion.
In view hostility Arab world to Zionist state since Balfour Declaration which recent events obviously will not decrease Jewish state will survive only [with] difficulty. Embassy agrees that Jewish state will probably require continuous economic and military assistance from abroad whether or not Zionists follow contemptuous attitude to Arabs. Department will recall that estimates supplied by Zionists as essential to finance working program for next four years called for about quarter billion dollars of external aid.
Informed circles here also agree that military aid will probably be obtained from abroad both on short term and long term basis, with possibility turning Palestine into second Spain and probable disastrous effects on long-range ME security and stability (see also mytel 513, May 132).
Sent Department 519. Paraphrase sent by pouch to all Arab capitals.