893.00/3–3148: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State 51
[Received March 31—8:32 a. m.]
574. Demoralization and deterioration of situation portrayed in our 432, March 8, have continued at an accelerated pace. There is an increased feeling of helplessness in Government circles as elsewhere and a fervent searching for some means of bringing a stop to civil war and economic and political uncertainties resulting from it. There is an increasing realization, shared even by Generalissimo, that military victory over Communists is impossible and that some other solution must be reached if Communist domination of all China is to be avoided. There is a realization that old methods are inadequate and that new approach is needed. There is, we believe, a sincere search for an effective new approach yet no one has found the formula. No one seems capable of taking positive action towards peace. Each one looks to another for initiative. Those in positions to influence Generalissimo to take positive effective measures fear his anger and are reluctant to put forward their ideas of reform. He has need of more courageous advisors around him and perhaps his reorganized Government will supply this need. As straws in the wind and as possible portent of future trends are recent proclamations by intellectual groups advocating reforms. What they are afraid to do individually, they are beginning to do collectively.
Chinese people do not want to become Communists yet they see tide of Communism running irresistibly onward. In midst of this chaos and inaction Generalissimo stands out as only moral force capable of action. We know that he plans to reorganize his Government yet we question a mere shifting of portfolios can result in effective action. Little, if any, new blood seems available. What is needed is inspired leadership of which so far Generalissimo seems incapable. Possibly, however, desperateness of his situation will serve to stimulate him as in past to leadership required.
In any event, there is ever so slight an indication that Generalissimo may at last deem situation so acute that he is prepared to accept and follow sound advice. He is taking measures to improve military situation in Mukden and if he can save Mukden, and it begins to look as though he may do so; if he can bring himself to begin institution of political and economic reforms needed to make his Government more acceptable to people, and there are signs here also that he may have reached that stage; and if we can continue and, if possible, expand our present support, as now seems likely from Congressional [Page 174] consideration of Aid to China Bill;52 then situation may not be entirely beyond redemption.
It is nevertheless desperate and if Generalissimo does not act and act promptly, there are increasing indications that growing opposition to him within party may find leadership, possibly under Political Science Group, and will remove him from scene, accepting best possible accommodation with Communists. Should this stage be reached, we could expect Soviet Ambassador Designate Roschin to assume his duties at Nanking and could look for acceptance of Soviet offer of mediation. Contrary, however, to belief expressed in our 432 we now incline to opinion that Soviet mediation would result in coalition government rather than in territorial arrangement. That road to power is better known to Communists and would, we believe, be more acceptable to dissident elements in government. Under a territorial arrangement present disposition of Communist forces would likely involve giving them jurisdiction over everything north of Yangtze and east of Sian—a division of territory unlikely of acceptance even by dissident elements of government. On other hand, we hear expressed on many sides belief that under coalition government fundamental characteristic of Chinese would assure that pattern of Czechoslovakia53 could be resisted and that democratic government in some form would eventually succeed.
Developments in National Assembly now in session should throw light on future. Choice of a Vice President will give an indication. China is once more at crossroads. Generalissimo sees structure he labored so long and so hard to create collapsing about him and he may be expected to fight with his usual courage and ability. Either those of weak heart will prevail and we will find ourselves with a Soviet-sponsored coalition government or those of stout heart will rally round a Generalissimo in some way reinspired to restore benevolence to his despotism sufficient to attract once more public following necessary to overcome Communist threat. We hope for latter but we fear former.
- Repeated as telegram No. Telmar 9 to the Ambassador in Colombia for Brig. Gen. Marshall S. Carter, who accompanied the Secretary of State to the Ninth International Conference of American States at Bogota, March 30–May 2.↩
- Approved April 3, 62 Stat. 158; for correspondence, see vol. viii , “U.S. Economic Aid to China”.↩
- Communist seizure of power during a Cabinet crisis in February 1948.↩