898.20/5–1448: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Stuart) to the Secretary of State
[Received 5:50 p. m.]
878. Announcement has been made of the appointment of Ku Chu-tung, presently Commander of Ground Forces, as Chief of Staff vice Chen Cheng. The new Commander of Ground Forces is Yu Han-mou. Both men have long and distinguished records for accomplishing nothing and for avoiding battle under any circumstances. They may have qualities which appeal to the Generalissimo but from a military standpoint it would be difficult to conceive of worse appointments. We can only conclude that nothing will be done in the military sphere to change their present policy of inaction, or to arrest a rapidly growing process of military disintegration.
If these appointments are indicative of the quality of men to be appointed in the new Cabinet, then the prospects for the Government now in power are even bleaker than we had supposed. Authoritative press sources this morning list a probable Cabinet which constitutes merely a reshuffling of the same old faces in new slots with Chang Chun continuing as Premier. Our information indicates the prognostication is likely correct in its general outlines.
The inescapable conclusion from this accumulation of developments is that there will be as little change in civil affairs as appears probable in military.
The question is what arises from these developments. We believe that the reform movement centering around Li Tsung-jen has reached proportions where it can no longer be denied, especially if Li is prepared to give it the necessary leadership—and the indications are that he is determined and that he can command popular support. Recent conversations with Li Chi-shen34 strongly suggest that KmtRC also means business this time and is confident it has requisite support.
Generalissimo had an opportunity to assume leadership of this ground swell by discarding the bankrupt clique around him and allying himself with the new forces. Above appointments only serve to confirm our worst fears that he is incapable of appreciating recent developments in China, of adapting himself to them, or of changing except in the direction of retiring to the imperial back courtyards.
In our considered opinion, this inflexibility of and blindness in Generalissimo can only mean that, by one means or another, he can, must and will vanish from the political scene, and that he will be [Page 232] removed by those forces he is seeking to smother. The sooner this happens, then the greater will be the prospects that the reform forces can rally the country to check the Communist tide and eventually to eliminate it as a force in China. We believe it now behooves us to keep the above prospects clearly in mind in the handling of our relations with China.
- Chairman of the Kuomintang Revolutionary Committee (KmtRC) with headquarters at Hong Kong.↩