Foreign Relations of the United States, 1949, Eastern Europe; The Soviet Union, Volume V

760H.6411/10–349: Telegram

The Ambassador in Yugoslavia (Cannon) to the Secretary of State

secret

Belgrade, October 3, 1949—7 p. m.

1030. Borba¹ this morning reported but did not comment upon denunciations of mutual aid and friendship treaties with Yugoslavia issued by Hungary and Poland September 30 and by Rumania and Bulgaria October 1.² We expect Yugoslav reaction to these denunciations will be moderate and will follow line expressed Yugoslav note to Soviet Union on October 1 which declared formal denunciation by Soviet Union of 1945 mutual aid treaty changed nothing since Soviets had long since in fact made dead letter of treaty. Yugoslavs are still determined not to be provoked into any untoward act and we believe them to be relying heavily on airing of situation in UN to prevent open hostilities. This they again brought to Kremlin’s attention in October 1 note by accusing Soviet Union of “violating international principles of UN Charter”.

We do not perceive how Yugoslavia loses any essential ground through recent Soviet-satellite tactics of treaty denunciations and we suggest that such tactics may reflect Yugoslav success in polarizing conflict on Belgrade Moscow axis (Embtel 1009, September 29³) and may be aimed primarily at protecting Cominform area from influence Tito heresy rather than at subversion of Yugoslav regime (as were such previous tactics as economic blockade).

We find it difficult to gauge influence of Titoist nationalism in satellites but believe Soviet estimate of its strength could well demand stalling off of Yugoslavia.

Whether Soviet tactics will now lead them to breaking diplomatic relations cannot be judged here but it seems to us more reasonable to suppose they will resort to mass reciprocal expulsions of diplomats leaving formal relations for present in hands one or two representatives each country in Yugoslavia and vice versa.⁴

Sent Department 1030; repeated Paris 127; pouched Sofia, Bucharest, Warsaw, Budapest, Praha; Department pass Moscow 142.

Cannon

1. The organ of the Communist Party of Yugoslavia.
2. On September 28, 1949, the Soviet Government addressed a note to the Yugoslav Government abrogating the Soviet-Yugoslav Treaty of Friendship, Mutual Assistance, and Post-War Cooperation of April 11, 1945. Similar notes abrogating their respective treaties of alliance with Yugoslavia were addressed to the Yugoslav Government by the Hungarian and Polish Governments on September 30, by the Romanian and Bulgarian Governments on October 1, and by the Czechoslovak Government on October 4. Yugoslavia replied to the Soviet Union on October 1. Replies were also made to Hungary on October 8, Bulgaria on October 13, Romania on October 15, Poland on October 21, and Czechoslovakia on October 22. The texts of the Soviet note of September 28 and the Yugoslav reply of October 1, together with the Yugoslav replies to Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria, are printed in Yugoslav Ministry of Foreign Affairs, White Book, pp. 140–161. The Soviet-Yugoslav exchange and the Hungarian and Bulgarian notes are printed in Carlyle, Documents on International Affairs 1949–1950, pp. 473–482.
3. Not printed; in it Ambassador Cannon commented that recent statements by Yugoslav leaders dismissing the Cominform with contempt as merely an instrument of the Soviet Union indicated that the struggle was on a direct Moscow-Belgrade axis (760H.64/9–2949).
4. In telegram 1009, Ambassador Cannon reported having been told by Yugoslav Deputy Foreign Minister Mates that the Yugoslav Government expected the expulsion of its diplomatic personnel from various posts but intended to retaliate only to the degree necessary to make manifest Yugoslavia’s intention not to be intimidated. The Yugoslav Government expected some of the satellites to break diplomatic relations, but it would not be provoked into such an action itself.