Office of the Historian

760H.61/12–149: Telegram

The Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Kirk) to the Secretary of State

top secret
priority
Moscow, December 1, 1949—1 p. m.

2985. For the Secretary. French Ambassador Chataigneau, just returned Moscow from two months leave France, tells me he has given to Schumann and Auriol1 following views on situation Yugoslavia: Russians will not move openly with military forces against Tito this winter but will rely upon internal subversion not excepting assassination. By springtime, other means having failed, Communists will step up guerrilla activities along frontiers with view aiding internal pressures overthrow Tito.

All else failing, and provided reasonable prospect US would not intervene militarily, then full scale military action to eliminate Tito et al could be expected in spring or summer.

Chataigneau stated further to his principals that Politburo would rely upon Vyshinski’s2 estimate of US reaction to Russian military operation in deciding whether and when to move. Such estimate by [Page 981] Vyshinski to be formed during his current stay in US and his evaluation our temper and readiness to react to such military operations.

My own comment would be to effect that this prognosis is not unreasonable and follows in general my own thinking (Embtel 2537, October 73). The importance of giving Vyshinski the correct impression prior his departure will be obvious. In this connection, I recall Foreign Minister Bech4 gave me to understand he had made our UN delegation aware his own view that Politburo were so enraged with Tito as to be pigheaded, obstinate in face of facts fearing such frame of mind not conducive clear thinking nor calm assessment consequences any precipitate military operation in Balkans.

Sent Department 2985. Department pass London 326 for Douglas, Paris 428 for Bruce, Belgrade 160 for Reams.

Kirk
  1. Vincent Auriol, President of the French Republic.↩
  2. Andrey Yanuaryevich Vyshinsky, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Soviet Union since March 1949, who was in New York as the Head of the Soviet Delegation to the Fourth Regular Session of the United Nations General Assembly.↩
  3. Ante, p. 968.↩
  4. Joseph Bech, Luxembourg Minister for Foreign Affairs.↩