888.2553/8–1554: Telegram
No. 492
The Ambassador in Iran (Henderson) to the Department of State1
385. Although Iranian politicians generally non-committal and some sub-surface tension felt, political scene Tehran remains calm and prospects for Majlis approval of eventual oil settlement appear good. Parliamentary consideration of oil settlement may nevertheless entail bitter and vociferous opposition on part minority in both Majlis and Senate. Both foreign and local observers express opinion that agreement in principle on oil settlement well-received, although details of provisions little understood by public.
[Page 1048]Several factors contribute to present confidence oil agreement can be ratified and put into effect in due course. Perhaps most important is general strength of Zahedi government. Politicians generally remain convinced that Shah depending on Zahedi government to carry oil agreement through and that US and UK stand behind Shah and are in complete harmony with each other. (Embtel 209, July 28, pouched London.)2 Shah has thus far supported oil agreement (Embtel 365, August 11, 1954).3 He not expected to waver except in unlikely event opposition elements able produce positive evidence, such as public demonstrations, which Shah might interpret as proving ground swell of popular sentiment of opposition to measure. Majlis president Hekmat, rumored in segments of press to be less than firm in support of agreement, has assured British Embassy this untrue and declared “there no worry about Majlis.” Through controlled press, government spreading rumor that Communists offering large bribes to deputies to oppose ratification; this obvious move to brand deputies opposing ratification as Communist tools.
In Majlis expected focus of opposition is nationalist-religious group around Qanatabadi. Should he be joined by Behbehani, as is possible, public might get impression religious community opposed to settlement. Other possible sources opposition in Majlis currently subdued. Tafazoli, frequently critical of government in the past, now appears to support ratification. Many deputies regard him as important weathervane of position court, with which he aligned. Oppositionist Darakhshesh, who has posed as spokesman of national movement, may also be restrained by court, to whose influence he is subject.
In Senate no cohesive group opposed to oil settlement visible although Lesani, Divanbeigi and Sharif-Emami likely to voice opposition, however, Divanbeigi, who poses as nationalist spokesman, is Shah appointee and Sharif-Emami also subject to court influence.
There still no firm indication of timing and method government to use in its anticipated request for Parliamentary ratification of agreement. Government understood to have cancelled plans involving participation of dozen Deputies and Senators in Inter-Parliamentary Union conference in Bern beginning August 27. It reported that Amini will attempt link various agreements on producing and refining, compensation, and payment in such way that Parliamentary consideration of all agreements as single package will appear obligatory.
[Page 1049]Important key to maintenance favorable situation described above lies in preservation public belief in solidarity among Zahedi Shah, US and UK.