796.00/3–2454
No. 356
Memorandum by W.
Park Armstrong, Jr., Special Assistant to the
Secretary for Intelligence, to the Secretary of
State
Subject:
- NIE 66–54: Probable Developments in the Philippine Republic1
This estimate was undertaken by the Intelligence Advisory Committee, at the request of the National Security Council, in order to appraise the prospects of the new Magsaysay administration in the Philippines.
The most pressing domestic task confronting the Magsaysay administration is to increase agricultural productivity and to proceed with agrarian reform. Significant progress in this program is likely despite opposition from powerful elements.
Magsaysay has also set ambitious goals for his administration in the achievement of economic stability and growth. He is likely to make some progress toward achieving these goals by employing incentives to induce productive private investment, and he may resort to deficit financing. He will, however, continue to look to the US for financial assistance for economic development.
In dealing with the US, the administration will be confronted with the problem of reconciling the Philippine desire for special US treatment, particularly in the field of trade and national defense, with the strong Philippine desire for full national independence and freedom.
The Philippine Republic will probably seek to improve relations with Japan and to expand Philippine-Japanese trade.
It is not likely that within the next few years the Philippine Republic will of its own volition attempt to assume a position of leadership among Southeast Asian nations or take a dominant role in any Far Eastern regional security arrangements. However, the Philippines can contribute to bringing about closer economic and cultural cooperation among these countries.
A similar memorandum is being addressed to the Under Secretary.1