162. Memorandum From the Representative to the Organization of American States (Bunker) to President Johnson1
SUBJECT
- Current Situation in the Dominican Republic
In my judgment there are now grounds for cautious optimism with respect to the chances of holding satisfactory elections in the Dominican Republic on June 1 as scheduled.
Garcia Godoy has made it clear that he considers the politico-military crisis which began December 19 with the Hotel Matum incident to have ended February 26 on the swearing-in of new Army and Air Force Chiefs.2 In his view, these and the previous changes in the high commands of the Armed Forces and the Police will make it possible to ensure an attitude of impartiality and obedience to civil authority during the campaign period on the part of the military establishment. I see no reason why this should not be true, particularly given the qualities of leadership and political moderation already displayed by the new Minister of the Armed Forces and the new Chief of the National Police.
Another encouraging development is the fact that political leaders and the people as a whole have obviously become increasingly convinced that the elections will be held. Right-wing parties (including notably the National Civic Union) which previously specialized in conspiracies to overthrow the Provisional Government have now announced plans to participate in the elections. Balaguerʼs Reformist Party is already engaged in full-scale campaigning and the rightist group behind the candidacy of ex-President Bonnelly has begun canvassing in the northern part of the country. We are presently completing arrangements to assure that the OAS Electoral Advisory Commission is on the ground during the entire campaign period. The Inter-American Human Rights Commission will also maintain a presence and is considering a plan to bring all its members to the Dominican Republic for the month of May.
The two principal problems remaining are the threat of Juan Bosch to boycott the elections and the continuing danger that violence and terrorism will disrupt the campaign. These two problems are closely related. Bosch asserts almost daily that a systematic campaign of violence is being carried out against his followers. Although there is a strong element of exaggeration in his charges, it is true that members of his party and other “Constitutionalists” have been harassed, beaten and even killed for their political beliefs. In addition, there appears to be little doubt that members of the Armed Forces and National Police have been involved in these outrages.
[Page 376]We believe it most important that Boschʼs party, the PRD, participate in the elections in order to make them meaningful and acceptable to the largest possible number of Dominicans. (In our view it would be satisfactory and perhaps even desirable if someone other than Bosch were to be the presidential candidate, although there seems to be little chance of his giving way. It might also be possible to live with elections in which there was no PRD presidential candidate but in which the party did participate on the local and congressional levels.) Garcia Godoy is also anxious to have the PRD go to elections and, while recognizing that Bosch may continue threatening abstention as a political tactic, wants to do what can be done to eliminate legitimate causes for alleging that a proper electoral climate does not exist.
Shootings and other acts of violence will, of course, continue. With so many weapons in the hands of civilians and such a large residue of hate from the civil war, nothing else can be expected. Nevertheless, I believe Garcia Godoy can establish, with our cooperation and that of his military leaders, minimal conditions necessary for free campaigning. We are presently working with him on arrangements to ensure adequate Armed Forcesʼ backing for the National Police in the event the extreme left is again able to provoke serious disturbances in downtown Santo Domingo. (It is our hope that the Inter-American Peace Force can ultimately be relegated to the role of a backup only to be called upon in extreme emergencies.) We will also continue to press him on the need to take decisive action to end right-wing terrorism.
If all goes well and we get to election on schedule, I estimate Balaguerʼs chances to be good. Although Bonnelly will obviously take votes away from him on the right, the formerʼs entry into the campaign gives Balaguer the opportunity to come out as the candidate of the center where most of the votes are probably to be found. In any event, I believe we must continue our intensive efforts to bring off the elections on schedule. There is no other acceptable way to resolve our short-term problems in the Dominican Republic. I also believe that our interests will best be served by the earliest possible withdrawal of the Inter-American Peace Force following the installation of an elected government.
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Dominican Republic, Vol. XIV, 1/66–4/66. Confidential. An “L” on the memorandum indicates the President saw it. Bunker departed the Dominican Republic and arrived in Washington for consultations on March 4.↩
- In telegram 1994 from Santo Domingo, February 25, Bunker reported that Garcia Godoy and high-level military officers had agreed to a formula to solve the military composition problem. The formula called for De Los Santos and Martinez to be “promoted” to Vice Ministers of Armed Forces and for Osiris Perdomo to be the new Army Chief, and Juan Folch Perez to be the new Air Force Chief. (National Archives and Records Administration, RG 59, Central Files 1964–66, DEF 6 DOM REP)↩
- Printed from a copy that bears this typed signature.↩