120. Article in the President’s Daily Brief1
USSR-Afghanistan: Situation report
The USSR may now have more than 30,000 troops in Afghanistan, and the total could go even higher.
Elements of a motorized rifle division that began arriving on Friday in the Kabul area from the USSR—probably Termez—are camping at the base of the mountains just north of the capital. The rest of the division evidently is on the way. [1 line not declassified] a regimental-sized unit with over 500 vehicles on the highway between Termez and Kabul.
[Page 334]There is also a report that in the west a convoy of Soviet equipment crossed into Afghanistan from the Kushka area on Saturday. The convoy consisted of more than 500 vehicles, including tanks, and was reportedly moving through Herat. Aerial reconnaissance was reported south of that city, and helicopters were evacuating casualties, indicating the Soviets had encountered resistance. At the same time, [1 line not declassified] a motorized rifle division headquartered at Kizyl-Arvat vacating its garrisons and traveling by road and rail in the direction of Kushka.
If the Soviet motorized rifle divisions from Termez and Kushka and the additional airborne unit from Kokayty have indeed all moved into Afghanistan, there are now more than 30,000 Soviet combat troops in the country. If the division from Kizyl-Arvat also crosses the border, the total could jump to between 40,000 and 45,000.
The Kabul area
Soviet forces in Kabul appear to be adopting a less conspicuous profile. Armed Afghan irregulars are guarding many government buildings, but the Soviets have secured key facilities and have set up a defensive ring around the perimeter of the city.
Soviet military flights to Afghanistan are continuing but at reduced levels. Most of the remaining flights are probably transporting supplies. On Thursday and Saturday, several Soviet transports apparently carried Soviet casualties to the USSR. [1 line not declassified] 250 Soviets have been killed or injured in the fighting so far.
Afghan Army units in the capital reportedly have virtually disintegrated and other units southeast of Kabul apparently have turned on Soviet forces. The U.S. Embassy in Kabul reports that there are also rumors of growing resistance to the Soviet presence in other areas of the country.
We have been unable to confirm Pakistani press reports that the Soviets have been involved in counterinsurgency operations in northeastern Afghanistan. Insurgent activity throughout the country appears to be at a low level.
Soviet commentary
The first major Soviet media commentary on events in Afghanistan, which was carried by TASS yesterday, represents a significant escalation of Soviet rhetoric against the US.
The TASS release, which previewed an article in today’s Pravda by A. Petrov—a pseudonym indicating high-level government approval—alleges that a “limited Soviet military contingent” has been sent to [Page 335] Afghanistan at the request of Kabul to help repel “armed interference from the outside.”2
Elaborating on this theme, the article states that the regime in Kabul was threatened by insurgents based in Pakistan who have received “unlimited backing” from the US and China. It even claims that Egyptian “specialists” have joined Chinese and American instructors in training the insurgents.
US involvement with the insurgents, the article alleges, reflects the efforts of “figures in Washington” to shore up a “strategic arc” in the region, which was “cracked” by the Shah’s ouster.
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 81B00401R: Subject Files of the Presidential Briefing Coordinator for DCI (1977–81), Box 8, Afghanistan Crisis—December 1979, PDBs. Top Secret; For the President Only. The full version of this President’s Daily Brief was not filed with this collection. The article printed here was found in this form.↩
- Text of the December 30 TASS release is excerpted in Current Digest of the Soviet Press, vol. XXXII (February 6, 1980), pp. 1–3. According to Anthony Austin, “Soviet Says It Sent a Limited Force to Help Afghans Repel Aggression,” New York Times, December 31, 1979, p. A1, the TASS statement was not only the first media commentary on events in Afghanistan, it was also the Soviets’ first acknowledgement of the invasion in Afghanistan. The Embassy in Kabul received the first diplomatic note from the new regime on December 31, as reported in telegram 8730. The note read: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan presents its compliments to the U.S. Embassy in Kabul and has the honor to state: ‘On the evening of Jadi 6, 1358 (December 27, 1979), the usurping and tyrannical regime of Hafizullah Amin collapsed as a result of corruption and anti-Khalq actions. In this sensitive moment, comprehending its grave national and historic responsibility, the Revolutionary Council of the DRA took over the ruling power of government and appointed Babrak Karmal as the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA).” The note stated that Karmal had declared Amin’s rule “obliterated forever” and identified the 11 members of the new Presidium of the Revolutionary Council. (Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Cables File, Box 1, Afghanistan: 12/31/79)↩