158. Intelligence Assessment Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
[Omitted here are a title page, a security information page, and a cover page.]
The Invasion of Afghanistan: Implications for Soviet Foreign Policy ([classification marking not declassified])
Key Judgments
Soviet decisions on the scope and timing of the intervention in Afghanistan were dictated largely by the situation in that country, but—once Moscow decided to invade—it presumably anticipated geopolitical gains that extended beyond Afghanistan. The naked display of Soviet military strength, moreover, will generate opportunities and costs that will affect Soviet foreign policy on a global basis.
In moving into Afghanistan, Moscow probably calculated that, in view of the decline in Soviet-American relations in recent years, it did not have much to lose in its relations with the United States. The Soviet leaders knew that they would have to pay a price in their relations with the West and that their actions would create deep suspicions about Soviet policy within the Third World. Past precedents, however, probably gave the Soviet leaders—most of whom participated in the decision to invade Czechoslovakia—ample reason to believe that, over time, their willingness to use military force in Afghanistan would enhance their efforts to extend their worldwide influence.
Moscow will attempt to show that it can wait out any US retaliation by turning to third country suppliers of embargoed or restricted goods. It may also undertake some retaliatory steps of its own, such as increased pressures on dissidents, harassment of US citizens in the USSR, and efforts to isolate the US politically from its allies and from the Third World on the issue of Afghanistan. In the face of increasing US pressures, it might take further steps—in Cuba, Berlin, or on arms control—to exacerbate relations with the United States.
[Page 458]In the near term, Moscow will seek to consolidate its gains in southwest Asia and attempt to minimize the costs elsewhere. To date the Soviets appear surprised by the forcefulness of the US response which, together with the general outrage expressed by most non-Communist nations, may be giving Moscow reason to believe it underestimated the wider effects of its actions in Afghanistan.
There is no reason to believe that foreknowledge of these responses would have altered the Soviet decision to intervene, but Moscow may have to give more attention than it had thought necessary to its relations with the world community. In Europe, for example, we would expect the Soviets to appear to be more accommodating on disarmament issues while portraying the United States as the principal obstacle to progress. In the Middle East, Moscow will attempt to divert Arab attention away from the Soviet attempt to crush a Muslem insurgency and back toward American support of the Egyptian-Israeli peace process. Elsewhere in the Third World, the Soviets will try to counter the damage to their image among the nonaligned states. The Afghan invasion has already embarrassed Moscow’s Cuban surrogates and caused Havana’s withdrawal from consideration for a seat on the UN Security Council.2
From Moscow’s point of view, the most worrisome potential consequence of its Afghanistan adventure is the prospect of closer Sino-American security cooperation. Soviet actions in Afghanistan will make the soon-to-resume Sino-Soviet talks even more difficult. Moscow will also be watching for signs of a more aggressive Chinese stance toward Vietnam now that the USSR has, for the first time, invaded a country that borders China.
The foreign policy fallout of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan will be mixed. A long-term Soviet presence in Afghanistan and continued involvement in the conflict will probably lead to increasingly unfavorable reverberations for Moscow’s standing throughout the Islamic world, particularly among Afghanistan’s neighbors who are opposed to a change in the balance of power in the area and are apprehensive about the dangers inherent in Soviet-American rivalry being played out in their region. Indeed, the longer the Soviets remain in Afghanistan, the greater the temptation will be for Moscow to take more active steps to influence the behavior of Iran and Pakistan. Similarly, a long involvement in Afghanistan might alter the terms of detente in a way that could tempt the Soviets to challenge US interests in the Middle East and the Caribbean more aggressively.
[1 paragraph (1 line) not declassified]
[Omitted here is the body of the assessment.]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 81B00401R: Subject Files of the Presidential Briefing Coordinator for DCI (1977–81), Box 6, Afghan Crisis—Pubs Soviet Moves/Options. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. A statement on the cover page reads: “This assessment was prepared by Melvin Goodman and [name not declassified] of the Office of Political Analysis. It has been coordinated with the National Intelligence Officer for USSR-Eastern Europe and the National Intelligence Officer for Near East South Asia.”↩
- According to a news report, January 6, Cuba concluded “the Soviet intervention of Afghanistan has started a landslide of votes for Havana’s opponent, Colombia.” (“Cuba Ends Fight for Seat on Council,” New York Times, January 7, 1980, p. A2)↩