215. Analysis Paper Prepared in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research1
1. AFGHANISTAN IN TURMOIL
The Afghan nationalist rebels are steadily expanding their area of influence as the government forces disintegrate. Babrak Karmal, the Soviet puppet, is despised and ridiculed, while increased conflict between Khalqis and Parchamists has created political anarchy. Another change at the top is likely, but another leftist in Babrak’s place would not promise to end the drift into chaos.
The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan may have been intended to establish stability, but it has had the opposite effect. The Soviets vastly overrated the clout of the Parchamist supporters of Babrak Karmal, who rules from an even narrower base than his predecessors.
The key problem, however, is the popular revulsion to the Soviet presence. Soviet forces were probably expected to stiffen the Afghan army and free it to fight insurgents as the Soviets secured the cities, roads, and key installations. But the Soviet presence has caused army units to evaporate as Afghan soldiers join the nationalists in ever [Page 595] increasing numbers. Police too are deserting in droves as the rebels extend their control into provincial centers and major cities.
Disaffection is reaching into the highest levels. According to clandestine reporting, the governor of critical Badakhshan province recently joined the rebels, and the Minister of Defense, sickened by reports of intensive Soviet bombing of provincial villages, has retreated into a military hospital. A high level Afghan intelligence official has stated, according to a clandestine report, that Afghanistan is “out of control.” While this is an exaggeration, if the trend continues, the regime might completely fall apart.
The bitter rivalry between Khalqis and Parchamists, whom the Soviets have unsuccessfully tried to bring together into a reunited party, has resulted in at least one shoot-out at the highest levels of government. Babrak appears to have moved off center stage and talk of coup plots and successors is rampant.
The Soviets must be even more alarmed now than when they moved against Amin. Not only is Afghanistan in chaos, but their own forces have not performed well and have sustained significant losses.
The Soviet dilemma is indicated by the widespread rumors of a Soviet deal with the former royal family. For the moment, however, another leftist candidate is probably more likely to be the immediate successor to Babrak. (Secret/Noforn/Nocontract/Orcon)
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Country File, Box 1, Afghanistan: 2/80. Top Secret; Codeword; Exdis; Noforn; Nocontract; Orcon. Carter initialed “C” in the upper right corner of the paper.↩