83. Intelligence Paper Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
AFGHANISTAN: Opposition to Amin
President Amin’s hold on power remains tenuous nearly 12 weeks after he seized control. ([classification marking not declassified])
Amin has skillfully outmaneuvered ruling party members who had supported the ousted President Taraki. His political enemies are numerous, however, and some may be desperate. Amin is vulnerable to an assassination attempt, perhaps by relatives or friends of the several thousand victims of the regime’s firing squads. ([classification marking not declassified])
More important, signs continue that the loyalty of the military, the regime’s mainstay, is weakening. The uprising of the 7th Division in Kabul in mid-October has been followed by more arrests of officers suspected of plotting against Amin. Military units in the field, mired in a seemingly hopeless counterinsurgency campaign, are susceptible to more mutinies. The Army’s drive against rebels in eastern Afghanistan is hampered by breakdowns in discipline and supply problems. It seems to be making no headway, and Army casualties appear to be fairly heavy. ([classification marking and handling restriction not declassified])
[4 lines not declassified], Moscow seems resigned to working with Amin as it supplies the Army with as many arms as it can absorb. ([classification marking and handling restriction not declassified])
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 81B00401R: Subject Files of the Presidential Briefing Coordinator for DCI (1977–81), Box 6, Afghan Crisis—Pubs Pre-Invasion Reporting. Top Secret; [codeword and handling restriction not declassified].↩