Foreign Relations of the United States 1977–1980; Volume XV; Central America, 1977–1980

127. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski) to President Carter¹

Washington, November 1, 1978

SUBJECT

• U.S. Policy to Nicaragua

Warren Christopher chaired a PRC meeting on Nicaragua yesterday, which I attended.² Bill Bowdler, our mediator in Nicaragua, believes that the time has come to tell Somoza that if he does not accept the proposal of the Broad Opposition Front (FAO), we will withdraw our support from him. Bowdler fears that unless we weigh in heavily today, Somoza will reject the FAO program in a speech he is planning to give tomorrow. We are also receiving reports of impending attacks by the Sandinistas, and Bowdler believes that if Somoza either rejects the entire plan or its central element which calls for the departure of Somoza and his immediate family, the FAO could disintegrate or throw their full support behind the Sandinistas. Our efforts to strengthen the middle will have come to naught.

The consensus of the meeting was that Bowdler’s recommendation is premature. We believe he should be instructed to request Somoza to give careful consideration to the opposition’s plan, and ask him not to reject the fundamental elements in the plan in his speech on Friday. Bowdler should also inform Somoza that we hope he will accept the plan. The instructions at Tab A incorporate those points.³

We should be prepared later to take more serious steps if Somoza decides to reject our advice and the FAO’s plan. However our preference is to try to delay taking those steps until the climate changes internationally as well as in Nicaragua. We expect this will be the case after the report on Nicaragua prepared by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights is published in a couple of weeks. In the meantime, we will try to explore with a number of Latin American nations and particularly with the two involved in the mediation effort whether they will take the lead or work with us in an effort to withdraw support from Somoza if he rejects the FAO plan.

RECOMMENDATION:

That you approve the sending of the instructions at Tab A.

1. Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, Office, Outside the System File, Box 67, Nicaragua: 10/78–7/79. Secret. Carter wrote at the top of the page: “Add statement that U.S. supports the basic elements of the package solution. JC.” Carter’s reference is to the FAO proposal.
2. Carter circled the words “a PRC meeting on.” The minutes of the PRC meeting have not been found. However, in an October 31 memorandum to Vance, Christopher noted: “After the usual thrashing around, the PRC approved a combination of steps 1 and 2—telling Somoza that mediators (read US) favor the elements of FAO proposal but stopping short of directly telling Somoza to go now. The IMF and AID actions would be reported to Somoza as being reflective of his declining support.” (National Archives, RG 59, Office of the Secretariat Staff, Records of the Office of the Deputy Secretary, Warren Christopher, Lot 81D113, Box 8, Memoranda to the Secretary—1978) For Robert Bowie’s memorandum for the record, which summarizes the PRC meeting, see Document 126.
3. Tab A, attached but not printed, is the instructions entitled “Nicaraguan Mediation: Talking Points for Somoza. “For the final version of the instructions sent to Bowdler, see Document 128.