94. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski) to President Carter1
SUBJECT
- Cuban Refugees: Mini-PRC, April 24, 1980
Victor Palmieri and Dave Newsom chaired a Mini-PRC on Thursday, April 24, 1980 on Cuban refugees. The situation is getting worse very rapidly. Fourteen boats have already landed in Florida with 904 people, but 600 boats are on their way to Cuba, and 18 are on their way back. Already there are 30 distress cases, and the Coast Guard believes that if the weather changes, there is a fair probability of loss of life.
The U.S. Government has clearly made known that we view the trips as unlawful, and INS served notice of fines for two boats that arrived this morning. It intends to fine all the boats, but local manpower is overwhelmed. The fines will not be much of a deterrent in the short term when people leave for their relatives, but it might have a small impact after a while. Part of the problem is that Castro is selecting who the skippers can take—some asylees, some family and others. It is difficult to know how many people he will permit to go; CIA estimates that Castro might allow 150–200,000 to leave and that about 500,000 would go if he let them. HEW estimates that it would cost about $60 million to resettle and provide public and medical assistance and social services for about 50,000.
The Mini-PRC reviewed options, but none are attractive. We will be looking into legal authority to tighten the enforcement, although this could be done only at the risk of further enraging the Cuban- [Page 210] American community, which is becoming hysterical. The alternative—to turn the tables on Castro and welcome the Cubans—could mean 500,000 refugees and a difficult prece dent for dealing with the Haitians. The Florida Congressional delegation is obviously equally disturbed, and hungry for action, although it is not clear what.
For the moment, we agreed to continue with our policy of trying to discourage skippers from going by issuing fines when they return. We will also try to open up a dialogue with the community and the Congressional leadership (from Florida and from Judiciary committees), but there was no consensus yet on how to do it. Still, it is essential that we try to reach out to the community or risk encountering increasing defiance and confrontation.
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Brzezinski Office File, Country Chron File, Box 9, Cuba, 7–8/80. Secret. Sent for information. In a covering memorandum to Brzezinski, April 24, Pastor commented, “I have never spent more time accomplishing less than on this issue of Cuban refugees. There is no easy answer; there may not be an answer.”↩