840.00/440
Memorandum by the Minister in Yugoslavia (Wilson)46
In a conversation yesterday with the Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs I found him extremely pessimistic about the European situation. Speaking of Austria, he repeated what has already been reported to the Department; namely, that the recent action of that country in establishing conscript service came as no surprise, as for nearly two years Austria’s preparations for such a step have been known here. He believed that if Austria had approached the other signatory countries of the Treaty of St. Germain for modification of that document, it would probably have been accorded. However, at the instigation of Italy, Austria had decided to violate the terms of the Treaty. He feared similar action by Hungary, for it is well known that that country is making military preparations. Of course, such action on the part of Hungary would cause violent reaction in the Little Entente countries.
The Minister believes that Italy will be entirely successful in her present Abyssinian adventure and as a result the prestige of Great Britain will suffer a severe blow. Italy had been able to act as she has because she knew that from a military point of view England was helpless. However, he said England is now aware of her military weakness and is taking measures to remedy it so that when the time is ripe she will be able to take her revenge on Italy.
What gave the Minister the greatest concern was the future attitude of France which, he felt, would have serious consequences for the Little and Balkan Entente countries, and especially Yugoslavia. France, he says, has consistently worked for a system of collective security in Europe. This system it now seems possible will fail, and France will therefore be obliged to make bi-lateral treaties of alliance with other countries. Owing to the attitude of England, he believes that France will now turn to Italy and endeavor to form an alliance with that country which, according to him, would weaken if not put an end to the alliance between France and the Little Entente countries and eventually leave Yugoslavia face to face with a militant [Page 290] and well prepared Italy. The French alliance with Russia, he said, had been a necessity for France, as if Russia could not secure an alliance with France she would have eventually made one with Germany, which would have been the end of France as a first-class power.
Speaking of the recent request made by Turkey for permission to remilitarize the Dardanelles,47 he acknowledged that Turkey had adopted the correct method of approaching this question, but that he regretted the action of Turkey which caused Yugoslav concern and placed her in an embarrassing situation as a co-member with Turkey in the Balkan Entente.
The Minister appeared also to be very pessimistic about the internal political situation of France.
- Transmitted to the Department by the Minister in his despatch No. 508, April 16; received May 1.↩
- See vol. iii, pp. 503 ff.↩