751G.00/3–2554: Telegram
The Ambassador in France (Dillon) to the Department of State
3545. Repeated information Saigon 402, Hanoi 11. Limit distribution. Re Hanoi’s 512 repeated Paris 216 and Saigon 406.1 We find Guillain’s comments contained last paragraph reference telegram unwarranted.
Although fall of Dien-Bien-Phu would have severely jarring effect on French public opinion and would undoubtedly influence future policy toward Indochina in Parliament, we doubt very much that it would bring about fall of Laniel government “by large majority” and that Parliament would call for “immediate negotiations with Viet Minh.” There are other factors including the wish to avoid a prolonged government crisis in the knowledge that France should not be without a government during the impending Geneva conference, the wish of deputies to avoid the risk of dissolution and new elections at this time if the government should be overthrown by an absolute majority, the impending EDC debate, etc., which would cause Assembly to hesitate before overthrowing government at this time in spite of bad news from Indochina. Nor do we believe majority could be found in Parliament “in favor immediate negotiations with Viet Minh.”
We interpret Guillain’s views as a further expression of well known Le Monde neutralist and pessimist line, and believe they should be judged accordingly.