424. Memorandum From the Secretary of State’s Special Assistant for Intelligence (Armstrong) to the Secretary of State1
SUBJECT
- Intelligence Note: Political Consequences of the Death of President Magsaysay of the Philippines2
The death of Ramon Magsaysay has brought to the presidency of the Philippines the current Vice President and Foreign Secretary, Carlos P. Garcia. Garcia is sufficiently popular to hold the government together on an interim basis in the period of crisis. He is well intentioned and likely to try to continue the policies of his predecessor. However, he is easily influenced, inept .…
There is some danger that the emotion released by the death of such a revered figure as Magsaysay might erupt into violence. Any suspicion of foul play could easily be followed by rioting against the supposed perpetrators. However, except for possible minor flare-ups, unity and order should be preserved.
Even before Magsaysay’s death, political maneuvering in Manila preparatory to the November presidential election had reached such a pitch that the affairs of state were beginning to suffer. With the field now wide open, this activity will increase and dominate all other business. It is not likely that any of the present leaders will be in a position to carry on further negotiations with the US on the bases problem.
At the moment, Senator Claro Recto, arch critic of the United States, is the only avowed election candidate. However, the elderly Senator Jose Laurel remains as probably the dominant national figure [Page 714] and may well try to enter the contest. A number of other leaders, besides Garcia, have presidential ambitions; among the more prominent are Senators Emanuel Pelaez, Speaker of the House Laurel, Jr., Gil Puyat, and Fernando Lopez, Manila Mayor Arsenio Lacson, and Ambassador Carlos Romulo. During the elections themselves, widespread fraud and violence could result unless a determined effort is made by the army and civic organizations to maintain strict control.
Neither Garcia nor any other outstanding national figure appears to be capable of leading a positive reform program or acting as the bulwark of a forthright pro-American foreign policy. None of the present political leaders is as deeply committed to political and economic reform as was Magsaysay or is in the same position to withstand the appeals of chauvinistic nationalism. However, the use of anti-Americanism as a political weapon against Magsaysay will no longer be necessary.
In the short run, therefore, it can be assumed that though peace and order may be maintained, little leadership will be given the reform program and political intrigue will dominate the scene to the exclusion of other affairs, including the resolution of outstanding problems with the US.